NBA Picks and Betting Tips: San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction, 17th November

NLB Staff

16.11.2024 13:06

Spurs vs Mavericks Prediction

As the San Antonio Spurs have ended this matchup looking like a much-improved roster throughout the first part of this season, they are playing a Mavericks team that has found themselves on a little bit of a cold stretch at the current moment. Coming off a 9-point victory against the Washington Wizards, San Antonio faces a Mavericks squad that lost their 4th straight game to Utah. This matchup will take place on November 17th at 7:00 A.M. IST in the American Airlines Center of Dallas. Underneath are our key betting tips, vital injuries, recent head-to-head trends, and current player props to help build a prediction for this matchup.

Spurs vs Mavericks Key Betting Tips & Predictions

1. San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks Moneyline Pick

The Mavericks money line at -288 is a perfect pick due to their higher chance of finishing with a much stronger offensive performance. Led by Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic in the backcourt, they should easily be able to handle the scoring off Devin Vassell and Chris Paul’s creativity. On the forward’s side, Klay Thompson should continue knocking down threes, while Julian Champienge won’t be able to match that. Even though Victor Wembanyaba will put in a lot of points Derreck Lively will make a huge impact on the bench to cover Naji Marshall and Daniel Gafford’s lack of scoring. Looking at this the -288 for the Mavs should give them their 6th straight moneyline victory vs San Antonio.

2. San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks Point Spread Pick

As the Mavericks have a -7.5 spread entering this game, they should be able to handle it with great strength. Having an offense led by one of the best all-around guards in Luka Doncic, his ability to score from anywhere and create for others is something Chris Paul won’t be able to guard. Even though Doncic’s defensive game could leak up a few great passes from Paul, the offense will be too much for this point guard to handle. As Kyrie Irving is right next to him, his dribbling skills and smaller frame will allow him to get to the basket easier. An elite defender who can use his speed to finish on the other, Irving should have control over the offensive game that Devin Vassell plays. Having a great three-point shooter like Klay Thompson on the outside, the Mavs should continue knocking down multiple shots against Julian Champiegne with ease. Although the Spurs have Wemby in the middle, his offensive game can only do so much to help this San Antonio squad stop Derreck Lively and Daniel Gafford. Therefore, the -7.5 for the Mavs is a great selection.

3. San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks Over/Under Pick (Total Points)

The over/under in this game is at 227.5 which is a solid line due to both teams having very solid offenses. As the Mavericks enter this game, they are led by one of the best backcourts in NBA play and have a great three-point shooting small forward. In addition to that, their backup center has been a great complement to their starter. Meanwhile, for San Antonio, it has been all about their great center who keeps scoring at a very elite level. Knowing that they have a power forward who can put in buckets and a decent scoring backcourt, their combined score last time ended up being 229 points. Seeing that, this game should hit the over with all the great moves made throughout the offseason.

San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks Top Player Props

Luka Doncic over 29.5 points at 1.85: Seeing that Luka Doncic has continued scoring with ease against a ton of point guards, he should continue doing this against a much older version of Chris Paul. As Paul has lost a foot in his step on defense, Doncic should have a great three-point shooting night, while using his physical force to finish. As Doncic has averaged 29.2 points a night, he should get over that in this game.

Victor Wembanyaba over 24.5 points at 1.81: As Victor Wembanyaba continues being one of the most dominant centers around the league, his scoring ability is a huge factor in his game. Someone who can dunk and use his size over Daniel Gafford, while forcing him outside, the young star should have a lot of point production during this game. Someone who is averaging 22.2 points a game, should improve upon that average by hitting the over during this game.

San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks Injury News & Impact

San Antonio Spurs Injuries: Although Jeremy Soachan remains out in this game due to his left thumb issue, the Spurs have figured out ways to play around it. With their latest injury of Tre Jones to an ankle injury, this depth piece who was adding 3.0 assists a night will force Chris Paul to play an extended role passing-wise.

Dallas Mavericks Injuries: As P.J. Washington, 9.4 points and 7.7 rebounds, is ruled out with his knee injury once again, this Mavericks team will have to use Naji Marshall in the starting role again. Seeing that Marshall is not much of a high-volume player like Washington, it will loom large on Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving to create more efficient shots than they already have so rebounding doesn’t become such a huge issue after missing several buckets.

Spurs vs Mavericks Head-to-Head Trends

As the Mavericks have recently owned the Spurs by winning 5 straight, this streak should continue despite San Antonio being much improved. Seeing that the Mavericks have never scored less than 110 points in any of these games, they should have yet another productive night on the scoreboard as seen from previous head-to-heads. Being 12-1 against the spread vs San Antonio over the last 13 matchups, this Mavericks team knows how to control their in-state rival's game.

Betting Insights & Public Trends

Looking at this matchup directly, 77.8% of the bettors are riding with the Mavericks to knock off San Antonio in this game.

Spurs vs Mavericks Final Prediction

Although looking at both records many would say the Spurs should win this game, the reality is the Mavs have way more skill on their roster and are starting to put it together. Although they had a tough stretch of games, this should be one where they can fight back and develop their little winning streak. Seeing that Luka Doncic is still their elite point guard who has continued to score and pass with ease, his matchup with Chris Paul will be a huge benefit. Even though Paul himself has been a very solid assist creator, Doncic’s overall game just will lead to him having a huge impact in this matchup. With Kyrie Irving next to him, that is a two-way combo guard that Devin Vassell will have a tough time handling. As Irving continued to show continuous ability to drive in lanes and knock down long shots, his defense has been an important factor for this squad’s success over the last two seasons. If he gets it right once again and continues to use his speed and side-to-side movement to cover ground, Vassell will have a lot of trouble trying to get in. With Klay Thompson being their main three-pointer shooter on this team, his matchup against Julian Champiegne should be something he wins with a lot of ease. As the Spurs forward has not been able to close out well on threes and struggled to get taller players off their mark, Thompson should be knocking down shots with ease. Although Harrison Barnes has been a great scorer for this team in the mid-range area, his ability to create off the dribble isn’t really something that a piece such as Naji Marshall is too fazed by. As Barnes should still win this matchup because of his size and ability to finish under the basket, Naji Marshall’s outside game should keep this head-to-head very tight. With Victor Wembanyaba underneath the basket for the Spurs, he will be the one position his team has an advantage at. Showing that he can still knock down threes with ease, his ability to fly to the hoop and dunk over small defenders like Daniel Gafford will be key in this game. As Wemby continues to develop, he has been very hard to stop at the start of this season and should have a complete mismatch on Gafford down both ends this game. Although this is true, the Mavs bench pieces like Derreck Lively II should help them come out on top in such a matchup.

Our pick: The Dallas Mavericks win and cover their -7.5 spread, while the score goes over 227.5 points.