NBA Picks and Betting Tips: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets

NLB Staff

06.11.2024 12:35

Okc vs Nuggets

As the Denver Nuggets are finally finding their grove heading into the real start of the season, they face an Oklahoma City Thunder squad that has continued their dominance from the last regular season. Given that the Nuggets have a 4-3 record after beating the Toronto Raptors in a nail-bitter, they play an OKC team that continued their unbeaten streak against Orlando. This game will be played on November 7th at 7:30 A.M. IST in Ball Arena of Denver, Colorado. Below are our key injuries, vital players, picks for the game, and top player props to create a prediction for the matchup.

Okc vs Nuggets Key Betting Tips & Predictions

1. Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Moneyline Pick

As the money line for OKC is -222, this is worth taking due to their chance of domination on the defensive end which could cause Denver to score much less than anticipated. Seeing that they have the firepower with Jokic over Holmgren, losing Aaron Gordon is a big key because Miachel Porter Jr. is their only other real big body. Understanding the value of his rebounding and how Peyton Watson could struggle with Christian Braun already having a tough time against Caruso could potentially lead to a lot of missed opportunities that Denver would have if healthy. As Jamal Murray could potentially not play, Westbrook has shown slight improvement in offense, but could potentially not be enough to match Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s great all-around game along with Chet Holmgren’s inside scoring. Adding Jalen William's perimeter shooting, OKC’s moneyline should keep their winning streak going at 5 against Denver.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Point Spread Pick

Even though the Oklahoma City Thunder are favored to win this game, Denver will win their +4.5 spread due to their ability to keep it close. With Miachel Porter Jr. being someone who can defend Luguentz Dort’s three, he will be a major factor for Nikola Jokic’s led offense. As Jokic should dominate Holmgren in the center with his size, a big reason why OKC is favored to win this game is due to the mismatch Jalen Williams creates over the youngster Peyton Watson. Even though Jokic will once against win his matchup in the middle over Chet once again, the ability of Shai Gilegous-Alexander to come down on Russell Westbrook, will lead to a lot of buckets. As he has Alex Caruso who will close out a lot of Christian Braun shots and help stop Westbrook’s pace when driving, this game will come down to the wire in OKC’s favor. Although Denver will be within striking distance Oklahoma City’s defense will have a couple of key stops to win it out, but the +4.5 spread will be won by Denver at the end.

3. Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Over/Under Pick (Total Points)

As this game is set to go over 223.5 points, Oklahoma City and Denver come in with two of the best offenses. With the Thunder having one of the best scoring and passing point guards, along with two great wings that can shoot the three, and a great center, their ability to space the floor will be a big key. Meanwhile, Denver has the best offensive center in the league and still retains one of their better-scoring forwards, which helps with other vital bench pieces they have. Although the last matchup only had 189 points, 2 of the previous 3 went well over the 220-point mark and should have a similar result this time.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Top Player Props

Christian Braun Under 12.5 points at 1.8: As Christian Braun has become one of the better scorers on the Nuggets, his challenge against Alex Caruso will be very tough. As Caruso is someone who is ranked top 10 in all defensive categories, his 1.7 steals are something that will create takeaways against a mostly spot-up shooter in Braun. Seeing that Braun drives in a lot, Caruso will be able to reach in and the ball away, while the Nuggets seem to rely on Nikola Jokic and Miachel Porter Jr. for most of their scoring.

Jalen Williams Over 20.5 points at 1.98: As Jalen Williams, 18.3 points, has been one of OKC’s most consistent offensive players, his ability to shoot the three from the corner and drive in has been key for this team. With Shai-Gilgeous Alexander always looking for him when Chet Holmgren is covered, Williams has a very easy advantage against Peyton Watson with Aaron Gordon out. As he can use his size to dominate, Williams should go over his season average and the over seems something very attainable in this matchup.

Okc vs Nuggets Injury News & Impact

Oklahoma City Thunder Injuries: As the Thunder will miss Kenrich Williams off the bench, they will miss one of their most efficient shooters, 46.8% from the field, for this matchup against a high-flying opponent on the other end. In addition to the Nikola Topic, ACL injury, and Jaylin Williams, hamstring issue, this team is still awaiting their offseason signing Isaish Hartenstien’s debut. Someone who provides elite rebounding, 8.3 boards a night last season, will make Chet Holmgren continue being the only real center Oklahoma City can rely on.

Denver Nuggets Injuries: With the Denver Nuggets already being without Vlakto Cancar due to an ankle problem, they have lost another forward Aaron Gordon for multiple weeks from a right calf strain. Someone who was averaging 15.4 points and 6.7 rebounds will be a huge task to replace as an elite rebounder and someone who improved on their three-point shot. As he is ruled out, Jamal Murray could potentially return after missing the last two games due to a concussion. Someone who has been replaced well by Russell Westbrook will need Murray to come back to provide some more scoring firepower after Aaron Gordon got hurt.

Okc vs Nuggets Head-to-Head Trends

As the Oklahoma City Thunder have controlled this matchup for the most part over their last 5, this should continue but at a much closer score. Even though the Thunder have won 4 straight games, two of them ended up within 5 points while the other two were a victory of over 14. Seeing this plus the fact that they won their only game in Denver with a 5-point lead, this game will come down to the wire. Even though Oklahoma City is 4-0 against the spread during these last couple of games, this is a game they should win but the spread could go either way.

Betting Insights & Public Trends

Seeing the current trends in this game, 68.9% of the bettors think the Oklahoma City Thunder will end up on top.

Okc vs Nuggets Final Prediction

As this will be a very evenly matched game, the one thing that could lead Oklahoma City to win this game is their full health. Even though the Nuggets have continued playing at a high level, the loss of Aaron Gordon on the wing will be key as they have to use the young and struggling Peyton Watson against an elite defender like Luguentz Dort. If Dort switches on Miachel Porter Jr. during this game, it could lead to an easier offensive game for Jalen Williams as he will be able to dominate his way to the glass against Watson with ease. Although the Nuggets could miss Jamal Murray, Westbrook could be an aggressive defender who could keep taking Alex Caruso if they plan to run a pick-and-roll for three. But, if the Thunder run their normal offense and let Shai-Gilegous Alexander hold the fort down, it could lead to major issues with Westbrook having lost a bit of a step on defense. Given that SGA is someone who provides great agility and can also knock down mid-range shots with ease, he could help complement Alex Caruso’s defensive-minded game. As Caruso will try to stay on Jokic up-top if the Nuggets make him a major ball-handler, his ability to lockdown greats from picking up easy drive-ins is something special that can’t be stopped. Even if not, he will be able to slow down Christian Braun’s three-point game and try to help as much on the other side with Nikola Jokic being the major Nuggets factor. But, if Denver’s young stars like Julian Strawher play much more efficiently, they could potentially take this game.

Our prediction: The Oklahoma City Thunder win, but the Denver Nuggets cover +4.5 spread, and the score goes over 223.5 points.