NBA Picks and Betting Tips: Miami Heat vs New York Knicks

NLB Staff

31.10.2024 03:02

Heat vs Knicks Predictions

Two potential contenders have started their season strong this year, and the Miami Heat will look to create more buzz as they face a super squad of New York Knicks. As the Knicks come from a tough 6-point loss to the Cavaliers, the Heat come in as a group that just won their 2nd straight game. This game will occur on October 30th at 5:00 A.M. IST in Madison Square Garden. Below are our key injuries, betting tips, and players' props to create a prediction for this matchup.

Key Betting Tips & Predictions

1.Miami Heat vs New York Knicks Moneyline Pick

As the Knicks are looking to make it 3 wins in their last 4 games against Miami, this rivalry seems to have another turn in it. With New York looking like they finally built an unbeatable roster and got all their early season jitters out of the way, they play a Heat team that really seems different from years prior with Jimmy Butler not playing at the same level. As Bam Adebayo will continue dominating in the middle for Miami, the -122 moneyline for New York seems much stronger because of their offense improving with Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns. Not having to rely on Mitchell Robinson to create offense on it’s own, all 5 of their starters are serious threats to score while the Heat’s defense has fallen off a bit this year. Allowing 110 points per game against some weaker offenses, their +104 moneyline isn’t that strong as they have to go up against a top team like the Knicks.

2. Miami Heat vs New York Knicks Point Spread Pick

Although the Knicks have been 3-6 against the Heat in against the spread over the past 9 matchups, it looks they finally put something together and have a title contending team. With Miami really having their problems of players aging and inconsistencies of Tyler Herro, this should be a game where the Knicks -1 will definitely hit. Although their record against the Heat is really bad in against the spread, some of those games include the season series they got swept in with a ton injuries during 2023. With the Heat at +1, this could be a very good game to hit the Knicks point spread pick.

3. Miami Heat vs New York Knicks Over/Under Pick (Total Points)

The over/under for combined points in this game is at 209.5 with it going to be listed at 1.91. With two sides that have solid offenses, when the Knicks and Heat play each other, one team dominates on the defensive side of the ball. Although this is true, the Knicks' offense improving will help this scoreline pass 209 after having added a lot more inside presence with Karl-Anthony Towns. As the Heat can do the same thing inside, it will vary the type of night they have from long-range. Given this, the game won’t be super-high scoring but both teams will cross or be somewhere around that 100 point mark again.

Miami Heat vs New York Knicks Top Player Props

Jimmy Butler over 18.5 points at 1.91: As the Miami Heat work around the star Jimmy Butler, he has been someone who keeps putting points against the Knicks no matter the result. Although Miami has struggled against New York in their last 5 matchups, he has scored 22.5 points while using his intellect to attack the basket. Now that Karl-Anthony Towns is under the basket, he will be able to hit the hole with an urge and create great chance inside. While some shooters like Tyler Herro are really struggling, if OG Annunoby stays on Adebayo, Butler will great one on one opportunities with Towns to finish. His season average is around 17.3 points and should be above that as he will once again be the top scorer.

Jalen Brunson over 26.5 at 1.83: With the ability to dribble and attack with his great speed, Brunson really gets a great matchup against a much smaller Terry Rozier. Given that he has been averaging 23.0 points against some of the top defensive point guards in the league, Brunson finally gets a mismatch and will be able to take great drives within lanes and knock down perimeter shots using his size. As Jimmy Butler will be on Mikal Bridges, Brunson will not have to worry about one of the best defenders trying to lock him down because Karl-Anthony Towns will push out Bam Adebayo to corner when he drives in. As this system will really work, Brunson should expect a very high-scoring night.

Miami Heat vs New York Knicks Injury News & Impact

Miami Heat Injuries: As the Miami Heat only have Kevin Love injured as their veteran leader again, they aren’t missing much and should continue using the same 1st and 2nd units during this matchup.

New York Knicks Injuries: With New York having both of their defensive centers Precious Achiuwa, 7.2 rebounds and 1.1 blocks, plus Mitchell Robinson, 8.5 rebounds in addition to 1.1 blocks, they will have trouble inside with KAT having to guard an elite scorer like Bam Adebayo. Since this could end up being a huge issue, OG Annunoby will have to switch with him and also hope that someone like Tyler Herro doesn’t split in through the lane.

Head-to-Head Trends

As these teams have 3 times within the last year, New York has the lead in victories with 2 to just one for Miami. Even though Miami had beaten them in the playoffs 2 seasons ago, during the regular the Knicks have won 5 of their last 7 matchups with the Heat. With each team scoring 100 in these games except for two times, there has been a mix of blowouts and close games between both teams. With the Knicks only missing the 100-point mark once, they hope to continue their regular season success against the Heat, while averaging 108 points over the past 3 games.

Betting Insights & Public Trends

As the public trends show many think New York should have control in this game and 53.3% of the betters have the Knicks winning this game.

Final Prediction

Although this game could go either way depending on which teams start with the hot streak shooting-wise, the Knicks should have a higher chance during this matchup. As they have had the Heat number in the regular season for a while, this will be another one of those games with the addition of Karl-Anthony Towns. Although Bam Adebayo could control the glass on the offensive end, KAT’s ability to knock down perimeter shots of screens will make the Heat center lose his focus towards a forward like OG Annunoby. Although Terry Rozier has been a solid ball-handler while bringing up the court, having someone like Jalen Brunson defend him and score gives them a real opportunity to win that matchup. If he takes Rozier to the basket the whole game, it opens up spots for Mikal Bridges and Miles McBride to shoot in both rotations. With Annunoby himself being a good scorer, his ability to make all types of shots gives this Heat only one advantage with Jimmy Butler on Josh Hart. Even with that, Hart has shown way more aggression than Jimmy which makes the Knicks a lot stronger in this game. But, if the Knicks struggle in shooting like they did in their season opener and Jamie Jacquez can provide on of his 30-point games, it could sway the other way.

Our Prediction: Knicks win and hit -1.5 spread with the total going over 209.5 total points