NBA Picks and Betting Tips: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks

NLB Staff

30.10.2024 00:25

NBA

As the Minnesota Timberwolves head into this game finally having to figure out rosters for all their new additions, they will play a Dallas Mavericks who will be a very dark horse candidate for the NBA finals again. During the Timberwolves last matchup, they beat the Raptors by 11 points and improved their record to 2-1, while Dallas just lost to the Phoenix Suns last time out. This game will take place on October 30th at 5:00 A.M. in American Airlines Center, Dallas. Below are our betting tips, player props, and key injuries to create a prediction for this matchup.

Key Betting Tips & Predictions

1. Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks Moneyline Pick

Looking at the money line for this game, the Mavs and Timberwolves have a 5 and 5 record over their last 10 matches which makes many think the line should be even. But, the reality is that whenever these two teams play each other it is mostly always a blowout on one side and this time the Timberwolves have a -110 money line, giving them a higher than 50% chance to win this game. Although the Mavericks had a dominating money line during their playoff series in May, this is time for the Timberwolves to fight back as they always seem to have the Maverick's number in the regular season over the last 2 years.

2. Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks Point Spread Pick

As the Timberwolves are favored with a -3.5 spread to win this game, they have a clear advantage in the paint during this game. During this year, the Timberwolves are 1-2 against the spread and 1-1 in victories. Although this is true and they have been 3-7 over the last matchups, their record against the Mavs against the spread is 3-1 over 4 games. Meanwhile, Dallas is 5-5 and not too far away from the Timberwolves, making this seem more favorable toward Minnesota’s spread because they always hit it against Dallas during regular season play.

3. Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks Over/Under Pick (Total Points)

As the over/under in points in this game is 224.5 at 1.87, this game will be dominated defensively and offensively by one side. During the previous 4 matches between these two squads, the closest score differential was in Dallas’s home court where they won by 7. As each game has exceeded 208 points, there should be a very good chance this happens again with the Timberwolves adding more scoring talent to their team. Expecting it to be a medium-scoring game, there is a good shot both teams score over 100 points as they have done in 3 of the previous 4 matchups.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks Top Player Props

Klay Thompson Over/Under 21.5 points at 1.74: As the Timberwolves will be focused on Luka Doncic with Rudy Gobert having to pay attention to a strong bucket-getter in Daniel Gafford, there will be a lot more flexibility for Klay Thompson to get his three-point game going. As someone who knows how to get open off screens, Kyrie Irving’s handles will support his three-point shooting percentage and force Julius Randle to stick on him. Seeing this, Thompson could hit at least 5 threes during the game for Dallas.

Jaden McDaniels Over/Under 11.5 points at 1.77: With Jaden McDaniels developing his three-point shot over the offseason and getting more form in his mid-range, this will be a great game for him to put everything together. As he went up against some very tough defenses in his first 3 games and just shot 12.5% from three, McDaniels finally gets a chance to against a defender like Cameron Johnson and knock down some threes while being able to show his agility by dunking. His scoring became a vital component for the Timberwolves in the last playoffs and if he can continue in the same role starting from this game, there is potential for him to average 12-13 points a game in replacement of KAT’s deep-shooting abilities.

Injury News & Impact

Minnesota Timberwolves Injury: The Timberwolves currently don’t have any injuries on their team and continue hoping to develop as a team for a potential finals run.

Dallas Mavericks Injury: For the Dallas Mavericks, Maxi Kleber has been ruled out with a knee injury. Although it isn’t that big of an injury when the first unit is out there since P.J. Washington starts over him, their bench will miss his three-point shooting presence, 35% last year. Against a Timberwolves roster that is one of the best defensive units, not having a knockdown shooter like that in the 2nd who has great length might cause some problems for their unit to catch a rhythm.

Head-to-Head Trends

As the Mavericks have won 5 of their last 8 meetings against the Timberwolves, 4 of them came last season from a Western Conference Finals matchup before Dallas fell to the Celtics. With 2 of the previous 4 games they played against each other, the differential was 15+ points in each one. Seeing that this has been a constant trend and the winner always tends to win the spread during meetings, it will be interesting to see which teams jumps out early. Over their 3 past head-to-heads, the Timberwolves have scored less than 109 points just once.

Betting Insights & Public Trends

According to public trends, the Minnesota Timberwolves have a 62.3% chance of winning this matchup with their odds being at -165 and just over 60% of bettors backing them to end up on top.

Final Prediction

As the Timberwolves are coming off a two-game winning streak, they have been on fire lately and it is led by Anthony Edwards. With him going one-on-one against Kyrie Irving, it will be very interesting to see which ball handler can dominate the other as two elite ones go at it head-to-head. This could very easily control the matchup as Jaden McDaniels will stay on Luka throughout to control at least some of Doncic’s superstardom. As a lengthy defender, he can help cause Luka into a few traps, but has to be careful to not give him any room or the Serbian superstar could make him pay. But, outside of the Kyrie and Anthony Edwards matchup, the other biggest factor will be Rudy Gobert’s ability to block shots. As someone who has won 4-defensive Players of the Year, he will be able to take Derrick Lively and Daniel Gafford out of the offensive game. Even if Julius Randle has to be stuck with as good of a shooter as Klay Thompson, the thing is Naz Reid can bring a double in the 2nd unit and cause the former Warriors splash brother into a lot of rough shots.

Final Prediction: The Timberwolves will win this game at the -4 spread and the over of 224.5.