NBA Picks and Betting Tips: Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, 16th November

NLB Staff

15.11.2024 12:28

Phoenix Suns vs Thunder Prediction

As the Phoenix Suns enter this game as one of the top teams in the league that lost their most key player, this squad will face an Oklahoma City unit that has become much stronger defensively after being great on offense last season. With Phoenix coming off a tough 23-point loss to Sacramento, this OKC squad won their previous game 106-88 against New Orleans. This matchup will take place on November 16th at Paycom Center. Underneath are our betting tips, key injuries, top player props, and head-to-head trends to create a potential scoreline for this matchup.

Phoenix Suns vs Thunder Key Betting Tips & Predictions

1. Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline Pick

Having the Thunder at a -275 money line pick in this game, they should easily control the tempo with clearly having the most talent between both sides. As Tyus Jones and Devin Booker have been good for Phoenix this year, they won’t be able to match the pace at which Shai Gilgeous-Alexander runs his offense with Isiash Joe or switches it up when Caruso complements his game. With Luguentz Dort being such a big defender that Bradley will have a tough time getting through except a few times, this Thunder squad will have a huge advantage with Aaron Wiggins at power forward. Seeing that Wiggins can score fast in a short period, he should continue dominating over someone like Ryan Dunn and help this Oklahoma City bench fit in. As the OKC moneyline is at -275, they should win it and move their ATS to 5-1 vs Phoenix.

2. Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder Point Spread Pick

Seeing this matchup, the Oklahoma City Thunder are going to win their -6.5 spread due to being the much healthier roster in this game. Although they are without Chet Holmgren, the replacement center Jalen Williams has played a very good role as a stretch five. As he can play defense on anyone, create his shot, and grab boards, his athletic prowess should help this team get an advantage over Jusuf Nurkic. Seeing that Nurkic has somewhat of an offensive ability, Jalen Williams can slow him down and this could be a problem with the Suns having no KD. Having Ryan Dunn at the 4 instead of Kevin Durant, they will have much less volume of scoring against someone like Aaron Wiggins who has shown this ability at a rapid pace. With Luguentz Dort locking down Bradley Beal at the small forward position, this defense should control many of the Suns' big pieces. Even though Devin Booker could potentially handle Isiash Joe if he doesn’t play to his maximum level, Alex Caruso will keep switching and be a key component in not letting Tyus Jones get many opportunities to Phoenix’s star. As Shai Gilegous-Alexander’s all-around game should handle Tyus Jones, the Thunder should easily dominate their -6.5 spread.

3. Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder Over/Under Pick (Total Points)

As the current over/under is at 230 for this matchup, there is anticipation that this will be a shootout between the two of the top three teams in Western Conference play. Seeing that the Suns are without their superstar power forward, they still have an elite shooting guard and small forward combo that should lead the way. With a very capable center inside that could score plus a solid three-point shooting point guard, they have a couple of backups that have provided consistent offense from deep as well. On the other hand, OKC will have a higher chance of carrying this line as they have a top-scoring point guard in this matchup. Although they are missing a great center that helped this team offensively, the replacement has been very solid this season as a layup taker and from deep as well. With a power forward who played extremely valuable minutes with high-volume scoring and a great small forward who can shoot threes, this score will go above 230 after combining for 231 points last time out.

Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder Top Player Props

Tyus Jones under 6.5 assists at 1.75: Seeing that Tyus Jones has been a better passer this year, he will have to go up against one of the top defenses during the current matchup. Having Alex Caruso as a great piece who can knock a lot of balls loose for OKC, there will be several times when Devin Booker just directly carries the ball up the court to shoot. Also seeing the growth of Josh Okogie in an extended role and having a much smaller power in Ryan Dunn than Kevin Durant to pass to against Luguentz Dort, Tyus Jones will have a tiny off night passing the ball and should go under his season average of 6.5 assists a night.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 28.5 points at 1.65: As Shai remains the best offensive player on this Oklahoma City team, his all-around game will come at a premium versus a much smaller guard in Tyus Jone. Using his body to get to the rack and wingspan to dive in for any additional boards for put-backs, the Thunder will rely on him as their main scoring threat due to Chet Holmgren’s massive injury. Someone who is averaging 27.9 points a night, he should hit the over by a margin in this matchup.

Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder Injury News & Impact

Phoenix Suns Injuries: As Kevin Durant remains the only injury in this squad’s lineup, his loss is key due to the Suns missing a starter who averages 27.6 points. Seeing his loss, they will have to rely on Devin Booker and Bradley Beal to score more with Ryan Dunn being a much less efficient replacement for someone like KD.

Oklahoma City Thunder Injuries: As Isaiah Hartenstein and Jaylin Williams remain out as these teams' most impactful losses, this squad has lost a lot with Chet Holmgren’s hip injury ruling him out. As Holmgren, with 16.4 points and 8.7 rebounds, was a great two-way player for this squad, a much smaller Jalen Williams will have to step into that center role and guard one of the biggest fives in this particular matchup.

Phoenix Suns vs Thunder Head-to-Head Trends

As the Oklahoma City Thunder have lately dominated this matchup, they should continue building their streak of three straight victories against the Suns. In a matchup where they are the healthy team, this Thunder squad should be able to score over 100 points for the 10th straight game. Seeing that OKC is 4-1 against the spread vs Phoenix in their last 5 matchups, the Thunder should continue to improve on it.

Betting Insights & Public Trends

Looking at the public trends for this game, Oklahoma City has a 67.1% chance of beating the Suns according to bettors.

Phoenix Suns vs Thunder Final Prediction

With the Phoenix Suns still missing one of their most key pieces in this game, Oklahoma City should dominate because they were already able to find replacement options for their start that got hurt. Knowing that OKC will have a full-fledged lineup, they should have real urgency and eagerness to continue winning and keep their 1st-place ranking in Western Conference play. Led by Shai Gilegous-Alexander at point guard, his ability to create a mismatch on Tyus Jones to get to the basket every time will be impactful as this team's leading scorer. A piece that could do everything on both ends of the floor, he can control Tyus Jones ability to hit many wings or other pieces in the middle. As Gilegous-Alexander is this team's offensive superstar, Alex Caruso complements him well by being an elite, lockdown defender. Although he is going up against one of the smoothest offensive players in the league like Devin Booker who can create his shot from anywhere, Caruso will be on the perimeter at all times and minimize the space to force shot angles during this matchup. The only thing is if Caruso blocks him from one end when Booker is dribbling through, the Suns shooting guard will be able to drive in with ease. But, as mentioned before, someone as good as the Thunder shooting guard at defense will not let Devin Booker get too many touches in this game. Having a guard like Isaish Joe backing him up, really helps this Thunder team get extra points while also having another terrific wing defender to lockdown 3-point shooting machine Grayson Allen. With Bradley Beal most likely going to play this game, he should have the ability to put in a few buckets, but Luguentz Dort will have him on his toes most times. Seeing that Dort is such a great defender who can use his big body to move players like Beal from the paint, his offensive game includes shooting threes off screens. While the Suns' small forward, Bradley Beal might have to switch on Aaron Wiggins, Dort can use his three-point shooting ability to knock down shots. The power-forward matchup between Ryan Dunn and Aaron Wiggins has a lot to do with how both centers attack each other. Knowing that Jalen Williams can stretch the floor for the Thunder and find his open shots while leaving the Suns center Nurkic in the middle, it can create a mismatch for Aaron Wiggins to finish with ease. As Ryan Dunn has struggled a bit to replace Kevin Durant, Jusuf Nurkic will have to carry a lot of the load, making it a two-on-one more than a two on two. Therefore, the Thunder will have a huge advantage in this matchup unless Suns players like Royce O’Neal and Bol Bol have a factor.

Our prediction: The Oklahoma City Thunder win and cover their -6.5 spread, while the score goes over 230 points.