NBA Picks and Betting Tips: Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Prediction 9th November

NLB Staff

08.11.2024 12:03

Heat and Nuggets

As the Miami Heat have shown a lot of problems with late-game finishing this season, they are going to play a Nuggets team that has found their stride and revived some careers. With the Heat having lost two straight games on back-to-back nights recently, the Nuggets just beat a top Oklahoma City Thunder team in a nail-biting comeback. This matchup will take place on November 9th at 7:30 A.M. IST in Ball Arena of Denver, Colorado. Down below are our key head-to-head trends, betting picks, important player props, and vital injuries to come up with a prediction for this matchup.

Heat vs Nuggets Key Betting Tips & Predictions

1. Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Moneyline Pick

As the Nuggets are favored to win this game, their -168 moneyline is something that will hit. Having a center like Nikola Jokic playing in top form, they can really have him dominate over both Bam Adeybayo and Caleb Martin. Given he can find open shooters, finding Christian Braun and Miachel Porter Jr. will be so that they can keep knocking down threes. If Murray doesn’t start, Westbrook can really use his strength to shut down Terry Rozier from getting past him and cause a lot of turnovers that are either intended for Jimmy Butler or Nikola Jovic. Seeing this, the Nuggets should win their 9th straight moneyline against the Heat at -168.

2. Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Point Spread Pick

With the Nuggets having a -5.5 spread, this is a great pick as they should have the advantage on both sides. Having Nikola Jokic in the middle, he should continue having another MVP like performance against smaller body in Bam Adebayo. Even though Caleb Martin will come with the help defense, it won’t be enough as Peyton Watson can create his own chances too. Seeing Miachel Porter Jr. being one of the best 3-point shooters in the league and someone who has always found the best spots on the perimeter, he could work of a lot of Jokic screens for great looks at the basket. With Jamal Murray potentially starting in this game, he should hae an advantage over Terry Rozier as one of the best dribblers and drivers in the league. If not, they will have to go to Russell Westbrook who has proven to be as dynamic as ever for this Nuggets squad. With Denver looking strong on both sides, they should definitely hit the spread in this game.

3. Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Over/Under Pick (Total Points)

As the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets both provide very solid offensive games, this game will have quite a bit of scoring. With the combined going to be over 217, both squads possess great wings who can shoot threes and amazing backcourts that create space for passes. While the Nuggets do have the advantage at center, they should be able to carry a lot more of the scoreline, while Miami will do their part. With both teams having scored 188 points without any starters, this game will be a lot different.

Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Top Player Props

Bam Adebayo Over 16.5 Points at 1.91: As Bam Adebayo gets an easy matchup vs Nikola Jokic in this game, he can easily score on him in the paint. Jokic hasn’t proven to be an elite defender and with Adebayo’s ability to stretch the floor plus score a huge number of points, he should really have a good offensive game. Averaging 14.9 points this season, he should be one of the Heat’s leading scorers once again and get way over the line with no help defense from Aaron Gordon either.

Nikola Jokic Over 12.5 Rebounds at 1.85: With Nikola Jokic being a much stronger force than Bam Adebayo in the middle, he should help create more 2nd opportunities and get many rebounds of Heat missed shots. As he has continued being one of the best rebounders around the league, Jokic has averaged 13.5 rebounds per night this season. Seeing this, he should continue his dominance under the rim and get over the season-average.

Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Injury News & Impact

Miami Heat Injuries: As the Miami Heat are most likely returning Jamie Jacquez after an illness, they only have Kevin Love out due to the conditioning issue. Seeing this, they should continue being able to run similar gameplans as they have during the early part of this season.

Denver Nuggets Injuries: Seeing the Denver Nuggets, the loss of Aaron Gordon, 15.4 points, and 6.7 rebounds, due to a calf strain should keep Peyton Watson in the starting lineup. Watson looked like a great replacement with 10 points and 3 blocks while being able to lock down a top Oklahoma City offense. With him not being a major loss, so is the one with Jamal Murray as Russell Westbrook went back into his prime form after scoring 29 points against OKC. Seeing this, the Nuggets will be hoping to get their players back from injury fast, but their ability to make these bench members look like starters has been something that’s kept them successful.

Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Head-to-Head Trends

As the Nuggets have completely dominated this matchup having won 8 straight, this amazing streak should continue. Looking like a much stronger team again, this game could either be within 5 points or a complete blowout with the Nuggets on top. As Denver has failed to score 100 points in any of these matchups, their prowess on the offensive end against Miami should continue. Being 8-0 against the spread, this Denver team should improve upon their record after this matchup.

Betting Insights & Public Trends

Looking at current public trends in this game, the Denver Nuggets have a 62.7% chance to win this game against the Heat.

Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Final Prediction

As the Denver Nuggets have found their stride with many players stepping up big time, they are playing a struggling Heat team that looks very imbalanced this season. Seeing that Jamal Murray may return for this game, it will just make it that much more of a bigger victory for the Nuggets. But, if he doesn’t come back for them at point guard, this roster has the prowess of Russell Westbrook to be one of the best all-around guards in the league. Someone who always seems to find Nikola Jokic, he can support him in scoring over Adeyabo by creating great chances and helping Jokic pull up from three. With Jokic also having a lot of great rebounding ability and being known as a well-renowned passer, his game will help Westbrook be one-on-one throughout. As Russell Westbrook has a huge mismatch over Terry Rozier and can drive through him in the paint, a lot of damage will be done by him scoring-wise. As an elite passer, Westbrook can kick it out to Miachel Porter Jr. or get his backcourt member Christian Braun the ball for threes. As Porter will be guarded by Jimmy Butler, he could control the Heat’s power forward game with elite perimeter shooting and rebounding skills. As Jimmy Butler has shown to play well one game and then not, Michael Porter is someone who could force Butler to have a night to forget about. With Christian Brau having way more size than Tyler Herro, he can come around screens or pull up from mid-range to score. Even though Herro will attack with his offensive arsenal, Braun will provide a lot of support with the defense having to watch Westbrook carefully. But, the only way to keep this game close is if the Heat’s Jimmy Butler plays at his full potential and Nikola Jokic doesn’t have another elite performance in the middle over Bam Adebayo.

Our prediction: The Denver Nuggets win this game and cover a -5.5 spread, while the score goes over 217 points.