NBA Picks and Betting Tips: Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs Prediction, 20th November

NLB Staff

19.11.2024 13:23

Thunder vs Spurs Prediction

With Oklahoma City continuing to be the top team despite all their key injuries, their opponents in San Antonio have shown real development as a roster during the early part of this season. As the Thunder came off a 121-119 loss to Dallas, they play a Spurs squad who also lost to the Mavericks, 110-93. This game will occur on November 20th at 8:00 A.M. IST in Frost Bank Center of San Antonio. Underneath are our key injuries, vital betting tips, top player props, and recent head-to-head matchups to create a potential outcome for this matchup.

Thunder vs Spurs Key Betting Tips & Predictions

1. Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs Moneyline Pick

As the money line pick at -250 for the Thunder, it is a great pick because they should have a mismatch at most places in this game. Having an elite guard like Shai Gilegous-Alexander leading the way with Isaish Joe, they should outscore Chris Paul and Devin Vasell. Even though Wemby may win his matchup down low, Jalen Williams will make it much tougher while Luguentz Dort should control the wings against Julian Champiegne. Seeing this, OKC should win their -250 moneyline and their 8th in 11 games.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs Point Spread Pick

Seeing that the spread is -6.5 in favor of the Thunder, this should be taken because they have seen to continue their dominance no matter what happens to their roster. As this squad is led by Shai Gilegous-Alexander, his prowess as an all-around player continues to be a key factor in this team’s success. Having been a great rebounder, passer, and someone who can create on defense, his matchup against Chris Paul should be a favorable one. With Paul only really being limited to passing at this point in his career, Shai should have a chance to take that out with his great vision too. San Antonio will have an advantage with Devin Vassell being a better scorer than Isiash Joe, but this shouldn’t be a massive difference. Joe can still create some shots from deep and has proven to be a better defender that could somewhat limit Vassell’s scoring. Having the greatness of Luguentz Dort to cover ground at small forward, his body control will make it very hard for Julian Champiegne to shoot with ease and cause him to pass it inside to Harrison Barnes. As he will be covered by Aaron Wiggins at a similar length, it will make it tougher for him to get his mid-range game going. Seeing all this, the Thunder should keep it very close with Jalen Williams guarding Victor Wembanyaba as an elite two-way player, making this -6.5 spread great.

3. Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs Over/Under Pick (Total Points)

As the over/under in this game is 230.5 points, it seems like this game will be very high-scoring with both teams having multiple scoring threats. Looking at San Antonio, they will be led by a great passing point guard and solid shooter right next to him. With a center that can score from inside or outside, they also have a couple of bench pieces that can score a ton of points in a short time. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City will once again be led by their all-world point guard who can create chances and develop for everyone as well. Having two great wings that can knock down shots, they have one of the best stretch-five scoring centers in the league. Even though their shooting guard can struggle at times, he has lately shown a lot of consistency as a solid scorer while they have two very quick guards on the bench that can get buckets. Knowing this plus their matchup two times ago went for 216 points, this game should have more scoring due to an improvement on both offenses.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs Top Player Props

Shai Gilegous-Alexander over 30.5 points at 1.88: Seeing that the Oklahoma City Thunder guard continues being one of the best all-around scorers, he should continue showing it against a much older Chris Paul. Have great agility and speed to finish, he also possesses a great outside shot he could be the Spurs' guard with through ball-handling skills. Knowing that SGA scores about 28.5 points a night, he should definitely go way over that in this matchup.

Chris Paul under 8.5 assists at 1.60: As Chris Paul has had a very solid season passing, this will be a very tough matchup against one of the better defensive point guards in the game. Seeing that Shai Gilegous-Alexander has caused a lot of deflections this season and gotten help from Jalen Williams as a great pass interceptor, they should be able to control CP3’s connection with Wemby. With Paul having averaged 8.4 assists a night this season, he will be somewhere on the lower end in this matchup.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs Injury News & Impact

Oklahoma City Thunder Injuries: As Isaish Hartenstien remains out as this team’s main defensive center due to a left-hand injury, they are still missing Chet Holmgren, 16.4 points and 8.7 rebounds, due to an iliac hip fracture. Seeing this, Jalen Williams will start at center and continue providing important minutes for this team as a key two-way player. Not seeming like the biggest losses in the world at this moment, this group still doesn’t have their key depth piece in Jaylin Williams, 3.4 rebounds, due to a hamstring injury. As Alex Caruso is 50-50 to return, a much more offensive-minded Isiash Joe will start ahead of him even though he can’t lock up shooters like the starting shooting guard.

San Antonio Spurs Injuries: As Jermey Soachan remains this squad's only real injury due to a left thumb injury, the Spurs will continue using Harrison Barnes, 9.2 points, mid-range prowess to replace their young piece. Outside of that, this lineup should continue having the same rotations and growing together as a group under Chris Paul’s leadership.

Thunder vs Spurs Head-to-Head Trends

As the Oklahoma City Thunder have won their last two matchups against San Antonio, they should continue building on this streak. In a head-to-head that OKC has failed to score 105 points in during their last 10 matchups, their record against the spread is 7-3. With this squad averaging 122.5 points over their previous 4 games, they should continue to have a very high-scoring night on the offensive end.

Betting Insights & Public Trends

Looking at the public trends, the Oklahoma City Thunder are projected to win this game by 71.4% of bettors against San Antonio.

Thunder vs Spurs Final Prediction

As the Oklahoma City Thunder have shown great ability to replace all their key injuries, they should continue being one of the deeper rosters with elite talent all over. Going up against a young Spurs roster, this should be a matchup that should help them continue with their hot streak to start this season. With Shai Gilegous-Alexander leading this OKC squad as one of the most dynamic guards in league play, his prowess as an all-around player will help him maintain control over a past-his-prime Chris Paul. Seeing that Gilegous-Alexander has handles to help finish inside with speed, he should be able to dominate the Spurs guard on all these moves while also knocking down deep threes. Someone who can create for others, his size advantage against Paul will give him great ability to find open teammates while also switching inside to win a rebounding battler. Being a key part of one of the best defenses league-wide, his ability to snatch the ball from handlers like Paul and intercept passes will remain key to taking out the Spurs point guard’s best ability. With this OKC roster still not having Alex Caruso back from injury, Isaish Joe will have a good matchup against Devin Vasell of San Antonio. As both of these guys are more offensive-minded players, Vassell’s all-around scoring has proven to be more impactful than the Thunder's shooting guard’s. Although this is true, Joe continues developing as a higher-volume defender and can still make some plays on a guy like Vassell who is a similar size to him.

With the Thunder having Luguentz Dort starting at small forward, his ability to use the massive frame will cause Spurs Julian Champiegne to have tougher looks from three. Although Champiegene has developed as an inside scorer too, Dort’s ability to create steals and force smaller players like the Spurs' small forward into turnovers will continue to be a huge factor throughout. Having a younger power forward like Aaron Wiggins who can play a similar style to Harrison Barnes, this is another matchup the Thunder should win. Even though Barnes can go on unstoppable mid-range stretches in the game, if someone like Wiggins can use his defensive skills to stop those, he will create a huge differential with his solid inside game. As Aaron Wiggins continues to use strength and speed to finish near the hoop, it is something Harrison Barnes can’t control due to his massive regression in those areas. In the middle, although Victor Wembanyaba will win his matchup with a great ability to stretch the floor and grab boards, the Thunder’s Jalen Williams will keep it very close. Even though Wemby continues to show prowess as a blocker, Williams's ability to knock down outside shots and match the defense on other end will help Oklahoma City control the pace even more. As the Spurs center does have a size advantage, Jalen Williams has shown to be able to attack and guard centers of all height ranges. As OKC has key pieces like Ajay Mitchell and Cason Wallace off the bench, San Antonio can only keep it close if Stephon Castle plus Keldon Johnson score at a high rate.

Our prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder win and cover their -6.5 spread, while the score goes over 230.5 points.