NBA Picks and Betting Tips: Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction, 23 November
NLB Staff
22.11.2024 10:31
Nuggets vs Mavericks Prediction
As the Denver Nuggets have finally figured out things without their top player having been unavailable, they play a Dallas roster that has finally started putting things together and look like finals contenders once again. Seeing that Denver came off a great 12-point win against Memphis, their opponents in Dallas destroyed New Orleans last time out. This matchup will occur on November 23rd at 8:30 A.M. IST in Ball Arena of Denver. Below are our betting insights, key injuries, player props, and vital head-to-head trends to create a potential outcome for this matchup.
Nuggets vs Mavericks Key Betting Tips & Predictions
1. Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks Moneyline Pick
As the money line picks for Denver in this game is -119, this should be taken as they have a favorable chance to score more. Although the backcourt with Kyrie Irving and Jaden Hardy should help Dallas keep it close by a lot, Jamal Murray plus Christian Braun have just shown more all-around prowess to have an advantage. With Miachel Porter Jr. being able to score and get more boards than Klay Thompson, Denver will have a slight advantage in the frontcourt as well. With Dario Saric and Peyton Watson expected to score a little more than P.J. Washington plus Daniel Gafford, Dallas’s bench will give them an advantage in points there with Dereck Lively II making layups at a high rate. But, looking at benches overall guys like Russell Westbrook and Julian Strawher should add way more to this Mavs roster, making their -119 money line perfect for a 2nd straight victory.
2. Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks Point Spread Pick
Knowing that the Nuggets are favored at -2.5 in this matchup, they look like a slightly better unit with all injuries. As Jamal Murray opens at point guard for them, his greatness as a quick guard who can provide points from many areas through ball-handling and shooting efficiency will completely outplay Jaden Hardy. Although Hardy has shown some form of development, his defensive game will be lacking while Murray should have multiple steals on him in this game. Meanwhile, although the Mavericks have a massive mismatch at shooting guard with Kyrie Irving going up against a weaker defender in Christian Braun, it won’t be as a bag a gap. Knowing that Braun can still create three-point shots, he should help out Miachel Porter Jr. play offense at his own. With the Nuggets having a huge offensive advantage as MPJ can use his length and dribbling abilities to score inside or outside, he should also gain a positive in rebounds due to his physical strength. Even though Klay Thompson can knock down threes on the other end, Porter Jr.’s defense should have some impact on preventing the Mavs' small forward from being fully on point. Seeing that Peyton Watson has been a key figure for them at the other wing position, he should continue knocking down outside shots against P.J. Washington. Although Washington has prowess as a board-getter and inside scorer over Watson, the Nuggets power forward has a stronger defensive game that could lock Dallas’s one down. With Dallas having a slight advantage with Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford complementing each other's game in the middle, Dario Saric should keep it close while bench pieces for Denver such as Julian Strawher plus Russell Westbrook should at a lot more overall scoring. Seeing this, the Nuggets -2.5 spread should be taken.
3. Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks Over/Under Pick (Total Points)
Seeing that the over/under in this game is at 231.5 points, both teams have great options that can score a huge load of points. With this Dallas squad having a solid three-point shooter at point guard, their shooting guard will continue being a star all-around player who can drive in or create from outside. As their wings have shown to be very good three-point shooters, their power forward, specifically, continues having a great dunking game as well. With their center being one of the best finishers at the hoop, they will play a Denver squad that is led by a guard who has found his rhythm as a great deep shooter who can finish inside. Having an SG who can create threes off screens and two all-around scoring wings, this group also has a stretch-five due to his mid-range game. With the Nuggets having two excellent scoring guards as well, their score should be somewhere around 242 combined points from last time out.
Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks Top Player Props
Kyrie Irving over 24.5 points at 1.80: As Kyrie Irving continues creating some of the best looks in the game, he has continued being unstoppable on the offensive end. As he will be going up against a weaker defender in Christian Braun, this Mavericks star has known greatness in making some of the best deep shots, while creating near the hoop as well. Seeing that he averages 24.3 points a night, Kyrie should continue improving on his season average during this game.
Jamal Murray over 22.5 points at 1.71: Seeing that Murray has continued being an explosive guard, his ability to create layups and good perimeter looks will be a key cog in this matchup. Going up against a guard in Jaden who's not really that great on the defensive end, Jamal Murray should use his pace and spacing prowess to score a high total. As Murray is averaging 18.5 points a night this season, he should continue expanding upon that after a huge performance.
Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks Injury News & Impact
Denver Nuggets Injuries: With this squad still missing Aaron Gordon, 15.4 points and 6.7 rebounds, to a calf strain, they will continue giving a younger Peyton Watson chances to get through his growing pains and become a capable starter in future times. Seeing that Nikola Jokic may be out due to personal reasons, they may have to rely on a true center like Dario Saric who doesn’t have the same passing or long-distance shooting abilities as Jokic.
Dallas Mavericks Injuries: Seeing that the Mavericks are going to be without Luka Doncic, 28.1 points and 7.6 assists, due to a wrist sprain, they are going to miss their all-around guard severely. As Jaden Hardy will have to start in this game as a much less consistent scorer and passer, this squad will have to rely on Kyrie Irving to carry the load.
Nuggets vs Mavericks Head-to-Head Trends
As these two units have always seemed to play each other close, this a matchup that always has an alternative winner. Seeing that the Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks are 5-5 against each other over their last 10 games, this game should once again be high-scoring as both squads have scored over 100 points in 6 straight matchups. With the last two games ending up within a 2-point differential, this outing could potentially be another very close one.
Betting Insights & Public Trends
Looking at the current odds, the Nuggets are favored by 55.9% of bettors to defeat Dallas in this matchup.
Nuggets vs Mavericks Final Prediction
Although Denver will once again likely be without their most key player in Nikola Jokic, the other key role pieces under head coach Michael Malone should still make them look like an elite unit. Without having to worry about the Mavs main piece in Luka Doncic either, Jamal Murray should continue to develop his recent performances even further. As he has lately started to find his rhythm as a finisher when ball-handling and an elite floor-spacer, this comes in addition to his already great passing ability. Going up against Jaden Hardy who isn’t as explosive as Murray, he should continue finding his shots with ease while also using efficient moves to make his looks even better. As Hardy has never proven to be a great offensive player either, Murray’s defense will be a major factor in the ability to create steals and cause traps for more transition points that keep this Nuggets squad successful. But, the Mavericks will have a massive advantage at shooting guard with Kyrie Irving continuing to be one of the best two-way players around NBA play. Being a key finisher at the basket who will create mid-range looks against a weaker defender like Christian Braun, Irving should be able to score a ton of points and keep Dallas in the game. With him being the leader on the defensive end for this Mavericks squad, he will continue forcing Braun into tough three-point looks and lower his efficiency for usual great performances. Even though the Nuggets shooting guard should have a great ability to score against backup Quentin Grimes, Irving will manage him as much as possible.
With this Nuggets squad having the scoring prowess of Miachel Porter Jr. at small forward, his ability to create off the dribble will help dominate over Klay Thompson’s defense. As the Nuggets piece is a much more lengthy offense that will grab boards, Klay will keep this matchup close for Dallas due to his very efficient three-point shooting. Even though it won’t be very efficient in this matchup due to Porter Jr. having a hand in his face, Thompson should still help the Mavericks to keep within striking distance during crunch time. As P.J. Washington and Peyton Watson should have a very competitive matchup at power forward, the one key here is that even though Washington is a better rebounder, Watson has proven to be a top-level defender who can score at his own will with a great corner shot. Having so many close matchups in this game, Dario Saric’s ability to rebound and create put-backs will have a rare advantage against a big defender like Daniel Gafford. Where many people struggle against Gafford, Saric’s length will be a key factor to out-play him while Derreck Lively II will try his best to give Dallas a slight edge in the middle. Although this is true, Denver has a much deeper bench unit with Russell Westbrook and Julian Srawther continuing to be strong play-makers, while Dallas can only rely on Quentin Grimes to provide. Therefore, Denver should end up having a slight edge in this matchup due to their deeper roster that can still play at a strong level.
Our prediction: Denver Nuggets will win and cover their -1.5 spread, while score goes over 231.5 points.
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