NBA Picks and Betting Tips: New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction, 20th November

NLB Staff

19.11.2024 13:18

Pelicans vs Mavericks Prediction

As the New Orleans Pelicans have recently struggled a ton with injuries and losses, they will play a Mavericks squad that has regained from to build momentum into the middle of this season. With the Pelicans coming off a tough 104-99 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers, this Mavs roster just won their second straight game by beating Oklahoma City 121-119. This game will occur on November 20th at 7:00 A.M. IST in American Airlines Center. Below are our key betting tips, player props, recent head-to-head trends, and vital injuries to create a prediction for this game.

Pelicans vs Mavericks Key Betting Tips & Predictions

1. New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks Moneyline Pick

As the moneyline pick in this game is at -535, the Mavericks should easily have control of this matchup. With a backcourt of Luka Doncic and Kyrie, they should have an elite ability to outscore Brandon Boston Jr. and Jaylen Nowell. Even though Brandon Ingram has an advantage in this matchup over Klay Thompson, P.J. Washington will continue being a key rebounder at power forward. Having the ability of two great centers that complement each other against Yves Missi, the Mavs should win their -535 money line and start a new streak.

2. New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks Point Spread Pick

With the Mavs having a -10.5 spread in this game, they should comfortably win this game. Starting out with Luka Doncic at point guard, his ability to score and use size has continued to help this team be one of the highest-scoring teams. Going up against a very small Brandon Boston Jr., he will turn it up a notch since he has the strength and height to drive in. As an elite point guard, he can also rebound and dish out assists, while Boston Jr. should have an efficient offensive night as a result of the Mavericks PG’s defensive struggles. Having a much stronger defender next to him in Kyrie Irving, the guard’s great ability to drive through and also create from long will show up against a smaller shooting guard in Jaylen Nowell. Seeing that Nowell’s offensive game is mostly catch-and-shoot, Irving will cover him well plus close out when he is attempting to shoot deep shots. As the Mavericks have one of the most elite small forwards in the game Klay Thompson will be something Brandon Ingram won’t be able to cover. As Ingram has shown prowess as a great three-point shooter and all-around scorer as well, he will probably win this matchup but not by a lot. With P.J. Washington having the ability to be one of the most elusive forwards and having great rebounding ability, he should handle the game of Trey Murphy III easily. Having Yves Missi in the middle will cause a lot of trouble against the Daniel Gafford and Derrick Lively II combo, helping Dallas win their -10.5 spread.

3. New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks Over/Under Pick (Total Points)

As the over/under in this matchup is at 226 points, it should be a very fairly high-scoring game with this line mostly carried by Dallas. Seeing that New Orleans has a solid backcourt that could put in a bunch of points, they will once again be led by their star small forward to be a key all-around scorer. Having a couple of solid three-point shooters on the bench and a center that has slowly shown some layup ability, they will do as much as they can to help with this total. But, Dallas will have a huge chunk of it due to their elite backcourt that can score from anywhere and an elite 3-point shooter at small forward. Now having their high-energy power forward back, this group continues to have a very solid scoring duo at center. With their last game being 245 combined points, this should be a little less but not by too many points.

New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks Top Player Props

Yves Missi under 7.5 rebounds at 1.71: Seeing that Yves Missi will be covered by Daniel Gafford throughout out this game, the Mavs centers will have a huge height advantage on him. As Missi hasn’t shown great ability to fight with stronger big men yet, Gafford’s muscular frame will keep him quiet. Seeing that Missi averages 6.7 boards a night, he will be under that during this matchup.

Kyrie Irving over 29.5 points at 1.69: As Kyrie Irving continues to be one of the best ball-handlers in NBA play, his finishing ability will be vital against weaker defenders like Jaylen Nowell and Brandon Boston Jr. Someone who can create space from scoring outside as well, the guard should be able to put on another strong performance. Given that he averages 24.8 points a night, Irving should have a much better night point-wise to help his season average expand by a lot.

New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks Injury News & Impact

New Orleans Pelicans Injuries: With one of the most injured rosters in the league, this unit will once again be without Dejounte Murray, who has 14.0 points and 10.0 assists, or their other defensive-minded guard, Jose Alvarado. Knowing this, the Pelicans might need to start the very young Brandon Boston Jr again, whose scoring volume and defense could cause some issues. As Zion Williamson, 22.7 points and 8.0 rebounds, is still ruled out due to that hamstring problem, his ability to get into the paint and score at that size will be something Trey Murphy III may have a tough time replicating. As the defensive small forward Herbert Jones is still out with a shoulder issue and Jordan Hawkins has his back injury, Brandon Ingram will be expected to play a lot of minutes alongside the less efficient Jaylen Nowell. Seeing all these injuries, New Orleans will have trouble scoring at a rate they normally would and can’t defend some of the big men in this game.

Dallas Mavericks Injuries: As Luka Doncic will most likely play after missing the last game with a right knee contusion, the Mavericks should continue running out with the same lineups that make this team unstoppable on both ends. But, for some small reason he can’t, Dallas will start the young Jaden Hardy, 5.2 points per game, and rely more on Kyrie Irving plus Klay Thompson’s scoring in this matchup.

Pelicans vs Mavericks Head-to-Head Trends

Although the Pelicans have won 2 of the past 3 matchups, this will be a great game for the Mavs to tie up their head-to-head matchups. Looking like the much stronger team, Dallas has tried to continue a sustained winning streak against New Orleans several times in the past but always seemed to lose because of 4th quarter adjustments. Although New Orleans has been 3-2 against the spread vs Dallas, the Mavericks will try to win and make this series three apiece while they hope to continue building on an average of 112.3 points against New Orleans over 4 previous games.

Betting Insights & Public Trends

Looking at the current public trends, Dallas is favored to win this matchup by 84% of the bettors against New Orleans.

Pelicans vs Mavericks Final Prediction

As the Dallas Mavericks are the much more healthy and complete squad in this matchup, it should be a very easy victory for them. With this Dallas squad having shown a lot of growth over their last couple of matchups by getting back key pieces, they should continue to look like a great all-around team during the game. Led by Luka Doncic at point guard, his return is key for this squad as the Slovenian national’s all-around game continues to be a massive factor of this team. Going up against Brandon Boston Jr., he can use his size and finishing ability to drive inside or also make some creative passes. Known for his crazy shots from outside as well, he should continue knocking down threes against a much smaller guard like Boston Jr. and have an efficient night from mid-range as well. Being an elite rebounder who can use his play-making ability to create 2nd chance opportunities, the negative will be that his defense can Brandon Boston Jr. a few easy layups and jump shots throughout. With an elite defender like Kyrie Irving right next to him, this two-way guard continues to be one of the most explosive players. As Brandon Boston Jr. and Jaylen Nowell will keep switching on him, he should continue driving into the lane with ease and create great opportunities from inside or out. Someone who is a great leader as well, his defensive command will cause a lot of steals against a smaller guard like Nowell who has shown less consistency with scoring. Kyrie Irving is also an amazing closeout defender who could cause the Pelicans shooting guard to take a lot of tough shots off-balance.

Seeing that they have an elite small forward like Klay Thompson, the Mavericks will lean on him to be their main spot-up shooter. As he will get an advantage over Brandon Ingram on that end, the Pelicans will still win this matchup due to Ingram taking advantage of Klay’s defense. With Ingram being one of the best fade-away shooters in the game, his length to finish inside is something the Mavs forward has always struggled to control throughout a 14-year career. With this Mavs squad getting P.J. Washington back, he showed up huge for them during their victory against OKC. Being one of the best rebounders in the game, his advantage against a recovering Trey Murphy III will be key due to the fact he can provide a high volume of 2nd chance opportunities and tough shots for smaller power forwards. Knowing that Trey Murphy has always been an average scorer, Washington should dominate him on that end while also being one of the best finishers inside. New Orleans will have Yves Missi starting inside against a very big Daniel Gafford that could cause the Mavericks to create more 2nd chance opportunities and create extra transition opportunities on the other end. Although Gafford’s offense hasn’t shown to be a great part of his game, his strength will help him create dunks over Missi with Derreck Lively II coming off the bench to complement his game. Seeing that the Mavericks have other great pieces in their 2nd rotation like Jaden Hardy and Quentin Grimes, the only way New Orleans keeps it close is if Trey Murphy III can play at full health and Javonte Green adds a masterful performance off the bench.

Our prediction: Dallas Mavericks win and cover their -10.5 spread, while the score goes over 226 points.