NBA Picks and Betting Tips: Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, 18th November

NLB Staff

17.11.2024 13:46

Dallas Mavericks vs Okc Thunder Prediction

As the Dallas Mavericks have hit a curb in their early season play, they hope to rebound against an OKC squad who continues to be one of the most complete squads in NBA play. Seeing that this Mavs squad came off a tough 2-point against Utah, the Thunder came off a massive victory against a top Phoenix Suns squad. This matchup will take place on November 18th at 5:30 A.M. IST in Paycom Center of Oklahoma City. Underneath are our key player props, vital injuries, betting tips, and important head-to-head trends to predict the winner of this matchup.

Dallas Mavericks vs Okc Thunder Key Betting Tips & Predictions

1. Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline Pick

As the moneyline pick for Oklahoma City in this game is at -225, it should be taken due to their positional advantages at most place. Although Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are expected to outscore, Alex Caruso and Shai Gilegous-Alexander in the backcourt, the front court is where all the magic will be created in this game. As Jalen Williams is a way more skilled player than the likes of Daniel Gafford on offense, plus the ability of Luguentz Dort to slow down Klay Thompson and provide scoring, there should be a huge positive differential for the Mavs in these positions. With Aaron Wiggins also starting to make noise, Oklahoma City should win their -225 moneyline and 3rd in a row vs Dallas.

2. Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Point Spread Pick

Looking at the Thunder having a -5.5 spread, this should be taken because they really have more depth and scorers on their squad. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander starting at point guard once again, he should be able to play at his own will against a very similar Luka Doncic. Although the OKC star’s defense will be down in this game, his all-around ability to score and create for others is key against a guy like Luka Doncic whose known for the same thing. As both of them can really get boards too, this matchup will be the biggest factor during the game. Meanwhile, Kyrie Irving gives the Mavericks an advantage due to his ability to create off the dribble and really use agility to get towards basket. As he goes up against a bigger Caruso, this mismatch will let him slip away and continue being one of the best finishers. At small forward, the Thunder will get a lot more power from Luguentz Dort as he will use his frame to force Klay Thompson into tough shots. Seeing that Dort has done this with many other great shooters this year, he will help new starter Aaron Wiggins focus on finishing over a less stronger Naji Marshall. Even though the Mavericks will have a defensive stalworth like Daniel Gafford in the middle, Jalen Williams ability to stretch the floor and create from mid-range is something that the Dallas center can’t stop. Therefore, the -5.5 spread for the Oklahoma City Thunder looks like a great pickup.

3. Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Over/Under Pick (Total Points)

As the over/under is at 218.5 points this game, both teams should continue being efficient offenses even with a few losses here and there. Seeing the Mavericks are still led by a top three backcourt in NBA play, they also have a solid wing that has one of the highest three point shooting percentages of all time. With a great backup center plus a starting one that can create of 2nd chance opportunities, this Mavs offense should have another great game on offense. Meanwhile, this Oklahoma City squad has an elite point guard playing at an all-time high level this season and a strong scoring center in the middle. With two very solid perimeter shooting wings and a couple bench pieces, this offense should be very formidable without their 2nd best player again. With their last game combining for 221 points, this should be somewhat of a similar result again.

Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Top Player Props

Kyrie Irving over 22.5 points at 1.71: As one of the best ball-handling guards of all time, Kyrie Irving will be able to use his speed and small frame as a mismatch for Alex Caruso to guard. With many quick guards already catching the Thunder’s defensive specialist napping this season, the ability of this Mavs one to exploit defenses with subtle movements will remain a key factor throughout. Known for making in threes as well, Kyrie Irving should definitely score more than his 25.2 point per game average.

Shai Gilegous-Alexander over 29.0 points at 1.67: Being the most eventful matchup of this game, the Thunder point guard will go up against a weaker defender like Luka Doncic, even though he is a top two all-around offensive player. As Shai Gilegous-Alexander should have the ability to beat Doncic with athleticism and a high-motor, his ability to finish inside has became a very underrated part of this superstar’s game. Known to make great shots from outside the perimeter as well, he should be able to score well over 27.9 points a shootout matchup.

Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Injury News & Impact

Dallas Mavericks Injuries: As P.J. Washington, 9.4 points and 7.7 rebounds, is missing due to his knee injury, Naji Marshall will have to continue playing an impactful role for this team. Seeing that he has been less efficient in the middle, this squad has been more reliant on Daniel Gafford to finish near the basket now.

Oklahoma City Thunder Injuries: Having Chet Holmgren, 16.4 points and 8.7 boards, out with a hip fracture, this unit will once again have Jalen Williams playing center once again. Although he won’t possess the same length and height as Holmgren, Williams really helps this team have a consistent rebounder plus scorer in the middle. With Isiash Hartenstien still out, this unit will have to rely on Ousame Dieng to play key minutes of the bench, while Jaylin Williams is slowly recovering as well.

Dallas Mavericks vs Okc Thunder Head-to-Head Trends

With the Oklahoma City Thunder having won two straight game against Dallas, this will be another tightly contested game that should help them extend the streak. As 4 of their last 6 matchups have ended in score differentials within 11 points, this Thunder squad is 4-2 against the spread during these matchups. Knowing that and the fact that they have averaged 124.5 points a night during 4 previous matchups, Oklahoma City should continue being a dominant offensive force against Dallas.

Betting Insights & Public Trends

Looking at the current public trends, the Oklahoma City Thunder have 70.1% of bettors backing them to win this matchup against Dallas.

Dallas Mavericks vs Okc Thunder Final Prediction

As the Oklahoma City Thunder enter this game, they have shown to continue controlling a lot of weaker teams with a mix of stars and depth pieces. No matter who starts for this squad, one key presence that is always there for them is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at point guard. Someone who has really been coming on as the top MVP as a point guard, he continues to provide a lot of all-around offense for this unit while also turning into a very solid defender. Although his ability to steal passes has improved vitally as well, he will be going up against another elite point guard in Luka Doncic. Seeing that Doncic plays in a similar way and their sizes are almost the same, this should be a great matchup to watch as it could potentially result in a shootout. Having Kyrie Irving at shooting guard benefits the Mavs because though the Thunder have an elite defender like Alex Caruso, this point guard for Dallas continues scoring in the paint at his own will. Knowing he can provide a lot of great looks and also helps out on defense, Alex Caruso could be in trouble during this matchup just because Irving is too quick.

Meanwhile, at small forward Klay Thompson has been a great three-point for Dallas, but this time he will have to go against Luguentz Dort. As Dort is known for his massive frame to cause traps on many dribblers or players trying to create their shot from outside, Thompson could potentially be locked down by him. As someone who hasn’t shown great energy on the defense this season, Klay Thompson might have his hands full with Dort returning the favor as a top three-point shooter and someone who could dunk. Although the Thunder have to move Aaron Wiggins inside at power forward once again, he should use his size and speed as an advantage over Naji Marshall. Seeing that Wiggins has continued to provide great layups and also defense inside, he should absolutely win his keep matchup. Many would think Daniel Gafford should have a great game due to his ability to create blocks and rebound, but he has to go up against one of the best perimeter shooters in the middle named Jalen Williams. As the Thunder center has shown tremendous physicality as well, he should have a competitive fight with Gafford and can create multiple blocking opportunities. But, Dallas could win this matchup if they slow down Isiash Joe as Alex Caruso’s rotational piece, while Derreck Lively scores at a high-rate backing up Daniel Gafford.

Our prediction: Oklahoma City wins this game and covers their -5.5 spread, while score goes over 218.5 points.