NBA Picks and Betting Tips: Houston Rockets vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction, 19th November

NLB Staff

18.11.2024 01:17

Rockets v Bucks Prediction

As the Houston Rockets have continued to be one of the most underrated rosters in the NBA under head coach Ime Udoka, Milwaukee has struggled to close out games this season leading to a very tough start. With Houston having come off two straight victories against the Clippers in the past week, they play a Bucks squad that had a very tough 115-114 loss to Charlotte. This game will occur on November 19th at 6:30 A.M. in Fiserv Forum of Milwaukee. Below are our key player props, vital injuries, head-to-head trends, and betting insights to create a potential outcome for this matchup.

Rockets v Bucks Key Betting Tips & Predictions

1. Houston Rockets vs Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline Pick

Seeing that the Rockets have a -140 moneyline in this matchup, it should be taken as they are the much more talented and stronger team. With Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green having a massive backcourt advantage over A.J. Green and Andre Johnson Jr., Houston should get a huge point differential from there. As Dillon Brooks continues to provide excellent defense and should lockdown Taurean Prince, the one major factor for Milwaukee to keep it close is Giannias’s ability to play both ends of the floor. Being a great rebounder and inside scorer, his defense will have a major aspect on where this game tilts against Jabari Smith Jr. Seeing that Alperen Sengun has continued being this great center that can do a variety of things on offense plus defense, his advantage against Brook Lopez makes this -140 moneyline look perfect and give Houston their 2nd straight vs Milwaukee.

2. Houston Rockets vs Milwaukee Bucks Point Spread Pick

As the spread should be taken at +2.5 for Houston, they look like the far more complete team in multiple areas of the floor. With Ime Udoka really having this team riding the hot-hand, they should continue being able to continue their prowess on both offense and defense. As Fred VanVleet runs this teams offense, his ability to drive in and kick out passes has become a great aspect of his game. Known for being an aggressive pick-pocketer, he should create multiple turnovers on Andre Jackson Jr. while using his tiny ability to squeeze in between to finish. Someone that can pass at an elite level, he has helped Jalen Green develop his shooting ability as well. Putting Green in the right spots for success, he should be able to dominate the young Bucks defender in A.J. Green. Seeing that the Rockets shooting guard has shown elite ability as a jump-shooter, he should have a very dominating factor against a player that solely relies on the three-ball. Stopping him on the other end as well with strong defense, the Rockets will have the strength of Dillon Brooks to knock down great shots and lock down Taurean Prince. Seeing that Prince is built to a lesser level, Brooks ability to close him out while also playing his own offensive game will be a massive impact. Although Giannias Antetoukompo will have a massive advantage over Jabari Smith Jr. as the main rebounder and scorer for Milwaukee, the Rockets should dominate the center position. Seeing that Aleperen Sengun’s all-around game will continue great mismatches of a three/defensive-strecth center in Brook Lopez, the Rockets +2.5 spread should be won with ease.

3. Houston Rockets vs Milwaukee Bucks Over/Under Pick (Total Points)

With the over/under in this game being 227.5 points, both offenses have great abilities to play an all-around game and be key contributors to their shot of victory. Seeing that Houston will be led by a very solid duo in their backcourt with a strong point guard and a rising start at shooting guard, they will continue being a great force in the middle with one of the best all-around centers. Having someone at the five who could from anywhere, their power forward has really developed into a better mid-range shooter and this unit should be helped by a couple other pieces of the bench that could score at a rapid pace. Meanwhile, the Bucks are once again led by one of the best power forwards in the game and a center that can really stretch the floor. Although they have some issues in the frontcourt, their players all seem to be very solid three-point shooting weapons. Having a solid small forward and a great backup power forward to help with their scoring as well, this line should go over with their last matchup combining for 220 points and these two teams having more healthy pieces.

Houston Rockets vs Milwaukee Bucks Top Player Props

Fred VanVleet over 15.5 points at 1.80: With no Damian Lillard, VanVleet will continue using his speed against another Bucks point guard in Andre Jackson Jr. As him and Delon Wright will split time, the Rockets point guard should exploit many holes to finish with ease, while also using his quickness to create great mid-range looks. Being someone that has really come on a solid three-point shooter lately, VanVleet should score well over his 13.8 points per game season-average.

Giannias Antetoukompo over 12.5 rebounds at 1.69: Although Giannias has to go up against one of the biggest power forwards in the game, he has remained one of the strongest and most elite rebounds. Seeing that his matchup against Jabari Smith Jr. will come down to which forward steps in front first, Giannias’s quickness on the defensive end and ability to forces tough shots helps him collect a lot of boards. Also being someone that has tons of blocks and gets his own misses a ton on the offensive end, he should hit over his 12.3 rebound season-average this season.

Houston Rockets vs Milwaukee Bucks Injury News & Impact

Houston Rockets Injuries: Although Steven Adams is still ruled out due to recovering from his right knee injury and Amen Thompson will most likely play, this unit should continue running with the same lineups to dominate on both ends under Ime Udoka.

Milwaukee Bucks Injuries: As Damian Lillard will possibly be out once again due to his concussion problem, the Bucks will really miss their elite scorer who puts up 26.0 points and 6.6 assists a night. Knowing this they will have to start Andre Jackson Jr. at point guard as a much more inexperienced and less talented option. Meanwhile, with Khris Middleton being out due to his ankle injury still, this squad will have to run with a low-volume scorer like A.J. Green and Taurean Prince moves to small forward. Seeing this, it could cause a lot fewer points from their backcourt and make Giannias and Brook Lopez work even harder to score more.

Rockets v Bucks Head-to-Head Trends

Even though this matchup seems to be won by a different team every time they play each other, Houston should start taking control of a series that used to be owned by Milwaukee. As the Rockets have averaged 115.5 points over this last two matchups, their high-scoring should continue and help this team score over 100 points for the 10 time in 11 previous head-to-head’s. Knowing that their record against the spread is 2-1 over the last 3 matchups, they should look to continue improve upon it in this game.

Betting Insights & Public Trends

Looking at the current odds for this matchup, the Milwaukee Bucks are backed by 60% of bettors to win this game.

Rockets v Bucks Final Prediction

As the Houston Rockets enter this matchup looking like the far stronger team, the only reason Milwaukee was projected to win this game at first was due to their star point guard potentially returning to full form. Seeing that the Rockets will be led by Fred VanVleet as their main guard that continues attacking the hoop with great patience, he has continued being the best facilitator on this offense as well. Someone who can create on both ends of the floor and really have a great impact in stealing passes, he continues to be the main leader on this roster. Going up against a guard like Andre Jackson Jr., he should continue showing his prowess as the Bucks point guard seems to be a very inexperienced player that can score but at a very low volume. With their main shooting guard being Jalen Green, he should have a mismatch across A.J. Green throughout this matchup due to the fact he has shown prowess as an elite scorer and grown on defense. Although A.J. Green is known for shooting threes, Jalen’s ability to close plus work quickly against him to create great jump shot looks will be a key factor in this performance.

As Jalen Green continues to turn into one of the best all-around scorers in the league, he will be next to a great three and defensive guy in Dillon Brooks. Knowing that Brooks can cause a lot of traps by forcing shooters to revert to their original positions after trying to attack him, his ability will make Taurean Prince have a lot of bad looks at the rim. Seeing that he won’t be in the same rhythm it could affect him down the floor as Brooks has an inside scoring ability plus can also knock down long shots at his own will. With Jabari Smith Jr. showing elite length at his power forward position, the Bucks will win this matchup due to Giannias Antetoukompo leading the way for them. As one of the strongest forwards in the game that can drive through multiple defenders for finishes and get tons of boards, he should have another great performance against Jabari Smith. Playing elite defense as well, this will be the one matchup Houston loses throughout the game. Although Milwaukee has Brook Lopez in the middle as a great perimeter shooter, Alperen Sengun plays the same type of game at a much higher level. With Houston having pieces like Tari Eason and Amen Thompson off the bench, the only way Milwaukee keeps it close is if Pat Connaughton and Bobby Portis Jr. can add elite prowess to their offense again.

Our prediction: Although many think Milwaukee should win this game, Houston has a much higher chance to come out victorious and cover their +2.5 spread, while the score goes over 227.5 points.