NBA Picks and Betting Tips: Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies Prediction, 20th November

NLB Staff

19.11.2024 13:37

Nuggets vs Grizzlies Prediction

As the Denver Nuggets enter this game having shown a lot of progress over the past couple weeks after a slow start, they play one of the deepest rosters in Memphis who have shown elite capability without star Ja Morant. With these two squads coming off a recent matchup against each other, Memphis prevailed with a 15-point victory. This game will take place on November 20th at 6:30 A.M. IST in FedExForum of Memphis, Tennessee. Below are our top player props, public trends, vital injuries, and key betting tips to make an accurate prediction for this matchup.

Nuggets vs Grizzlies Key Betting Tips & Predictions

1. Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies Moneyline Pick

The money line for Memphis during this game is -159 and looks like a great pick due to having a great ability to have a super deep roster. Although Jamal Murray and Christian Braun will outscore, Scotty Pippen Jr. plus Marcus Smart, it will be much closer than what most expect because of the Memphis backcourt's ability to defend. As Desmond Bane has proven to provide more than Miachel Porter Jr. at the small forward position, this Grizzlies squad has an advantage in the front court as well. With Zach Edey and Jaren Jackson Jr. providing more rebounding plus scoring than Peyton Watson plus Dario Saric, they will create a ton of blocks on Denver as well. Seeing this, the -159 moneyline is perfect for Memphis and they should win their 2nd straight against Denver in a row.

2. Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies Point Spread Pick

As the Grizzlies have a -3.5 spread in this matchup, it should be taken as they seem like a much better rotation with a variety of players that can attack in different ways. Led by point guard Scotty Pippen Jr., he should continue providing a great presence as a finisher and passer on this team. Someone who has shown to have good court vision, he will go up against a guard like Jamal Murray who should have more points than him. Even though that is through, Pippen Jr.’s passing will affect Murray’s defense even more, while he will try to use size to get extra boards for his team. As an overall player, he should have a great matchup with the Grizzlies point guard, while both shooting guards have very opposite games as well. With Christian Braun being a great knock-down shooter who should still fire away from and have perimeter range, his other skills like driving in will be limited through Smart’s stealing prowess. At small forward, the Grizzlies should have a slight advantage with Desmond Bane having more in his offensive arsenal than what Miachel Porter Jr. will provide. As MPJ is still a great shot creator from outside, Bane’s ability to use strength and finish against top defenders will be a key component during this matchup. Given that Jaren Jackson Jr. gets his mismatch against Peyton Watson, he should continue scoring a lot more points inside as well. Seeing that he provides an all-around game and Zach Edey should outrebound Dario Saric, the -3.5 spread for Memphis should be taken.

3. Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies Over/Under Pick (Total Points)

With the over/under in this game being 223.5 points, both teams have shown to have very capable offenses who could hit you from many different places on the court. With the Nuggets having one of the better scorers at point guard from three and driving in, their shooting guard will continue remaining one of their main threats from deep as well. Having a great small forward who can score from the perimeter with ease, this unit has one of the best all-around point guards on the bench. Although they may be lacking at center with their best piece missing, they should get some points from their power-forward jump shot game too. Meanwhile, Memphis will continue to have a great shooting guard/power forward duo, while their backcourt should provide some points. Having a great backup shooting guard from three and a very solid rotational piece at small-forward, this unit should keep providing points with their center being a piece known for his put-backs. As these two teams combined for 215 points in their last game, this should be higher with more pieces healthier since then.

Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies Top Player Props

Jaren Jackson Jr. over 21.5 points at 1.80: Seeing the size of the Grizzlies' power forward, he should continue dominating a smaller guy on the Nuggets such as Peyton Watson. As someone who has developed a three-point shot and can get his mid-range game going, his ability to hit fade-aways at that length is unique. With potentially no Nikola Jokic to switch on him when attacking the rim, Jaren Jackson Jr. should score somewhere around or over his 23.1 point-per-game average this season.

Christian Braun over 13.5 points at 1.78: With this team already losing Aaron Gordon as a key three-point shooter, Braun now has officially turned into their main spot-up shooter outside of Miachel Porter Jr. Someone who can knock down deep shots with ease and use his body to create mid-range shots over smaller defenders like Luke Kennard off the bench for Memphis, his high-efficiency shooting should continue in this matchup. Seeing that he averages 15.9 points this season for Denver, he should score way over his line in this game.

Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies Injury News & Impact

Denver Nuggets Injuries: As Nikola Jokic will be 50/50 to return after missing two games due to personal reasons, the Nuggets' other major loss will remain Aaron Gordon. Seeing that they are missing his 15.4 points and 6.7 rebounds, Peyton Watson has been a very solid replacement but doesn’t provide the same high-volume three-point shooting. Being someone who averages 6 fewer points a night, the Nuggets missing a wing could put more pressure on Miachel Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray to attack from the outside.

Memphis Grizzlies Injuries: With star point guard Ja Morant, 20.6 points and 9.1 assists, still ruled out due to his hip injury, this group will start Scotty Pippen Jr. who has shown growth game-by-game. Although he hasn’t been as efficient scoring-wise, Pippen’s all-around game makes up a good amount of what the Grizzlies are missing without Morant. As Zach Edey is highly likely to play after leaving the game due to an ankle injury, the Grizzlies will also return Marcus Smart from an illness that caused him to miss the last matchup.

Nuggets vs Grizzlies Head-to-Head Trends

As the Grizzlies hope to start their own winning streak against Denver after winning for the first time in six attempts, they have a slight edge to do it. Although this game could end up anyone’s victory, Memphis showed a lot of potential in this matchup on defense after holding the Nuggets to under 100 for the first time in six matchups. Going into this game, they have averaged 106.3 points during their last 3 games vs Denver, while also being 1-1 against the spread in two previous matchups against this Nuggets squad.

Betting Insights & Public Trends

Looking at the current public trends, the Memphis Grizzlies are favored to win this game by 62.8% of the bettors.

Nuggets vs Grizzlies Final Prediction

Seeing that the Grizzlies are continuing to be one of the best teams without some of their top-skill players, this unit has figured out a way to win no matter what. With Nikola Jokic trending not to play due to personal concerns, this Grizzlies team should have another victory as they have all other matchup advantages. Led by point guard Scotty Pippen Jr., he has slowly turned into one of the best all-around players in this league. Although he is undersized, his ability to be that two-way guard in replacement of Ja Morant has helped this squad have a facilitator with speed. Going up against Jamal Murray, although Murray will have the scoring and passing advantage, Pippen Jr. should be able to use physicality for boards plus creating steals. In a matchup where Murray hasn’t been as high-profile of a defender as before, the Grizzlies guard should still have a good number of points that make the overall differential between these two PGs low. With both of them having an ability to knock down the three as well, Marcus Smart should hold down the fort against a younger guard in Christian Braun. Even though Braun will have a lot of threes in this game and be able to use his size to get mismatches when it comes down to the crunch time moments, Smart will make the way bigger plays in this game. Although he can’t score much to level Braun’s total, Smart has never been known as a scorer but always put out there to create assists and lockdown some of the best shooting guards league-wide.

As Desmond Bane and Miachel Porter Jr. seem to be very similar players in their roles, both should continue having high-volume shots throughout while getting massive boards. Although MPJ seems to be a bigger small forward, the key is that Bane has been more efficient and also creates a lot of chances for others with his passing. Having a great mid-range game and inside scoring games as well with his pure strength, the Nuggets small forward won’t be able to handle that with ease. Even though Bane won’t have a huge presence either on defense with Porter Jr’s perimeter abilities, he should have some control due to the Nuggets small forward not being as good of an inside scorer. The biggest advantage in this game will occur at power forward with Jaren Jackson Jr.’s ability to put in shots against a smaller Peyton Watson. The Nuggets’ Watson has shown some scoring prowess, but with the ability of the Grizzlies to power forward to create rebounds and blocks, this will be a much less productive game for Denver’s one. With Jackson Jr. having been one of the best all-around scorers from mid-range or deep, he should continue his greatness by using strength and agility to finish with dunks, also. With Nikola Jokic likely not playing, the Nuggets' backup center Dario Saric is a much smaller and weaker option than Zach Edey for rebounding. Seeing this and that Memphis has Santi Aldama plus Luke Kennard from the bench, Denver could win this game if Saric can replace Jokic at a very efficient level, while Russell Westbrook has an elite-level performance.

Our prediction: Memphis Grizzlies win and cover their -3.5 spread, while the score goes over 223.5 points.