How To Use Odds and Probabilities in Football Betting

NLB Team

10.09.2024 02:25

Odds and Probabilities in Football Betting

Football is one of the most popular sports worldwide. Naturally, many fans enjoy betting on their favourite teams to make huge profits by using their football knowledge. However, it is important to understand how betting odds work and how you can use them effectively.

For a successful bet, you must have a well-researched football betting strategy which includes the knowledge of probability and its relevance in football betting.

In this article, we will give you a brief overview on how to use probability in football betting, how football betting odds work, what 3:1 odds mean and the types of betting odds offered by top bookmakers for football betting.

How to use Probability in Football Betting

In terms of football betting, probability can be defined as the probability of getting a particular outcome. This will be where a team is a winner, loser or the match results in a draw. These chances are evaluated and based on the assessment, bookmakers come up with their odds. If the probability of an event is higher, it will have lower odds and result in smaller payouts.

In Football the betting odds are calculated as decimal, fraction and American odds. For instance, if a team has a 70% probability of losing, the bookmaker has predicted that this outcome is not likely to occur. By converting the betting odds to probability, you can get to know the exact probability of the outcome of the match based on the odds given by the bookmaker.

Probability Conversion in Betting

Through probability conversion, you can calculate the probability of the occurrence of an event by the odds specified.

For example, if

Odds for Team A are 3.44
Odds for Team B are 1.75
Odds for a draw are 4.02

Thus, the total match odds will be 3.44 + 1.75 + 4.02= 9.21

Team A winning probability - (Odds for Team B/ Total match odds) * 100

i.e. (1.75/9.21) * 100 = 19%

Team B winning probability - (Odds for Team A/ Total match odds) * 100

i.e. (3.44/9.21) * 100 = 37%

Draw - [100- (Team A Probability + Team B probability)]

[100 - (19 + 37)] = 44%

How to Convert Football Odds to Football Betting

When you are betting, it becomes important to understand the process of converting different football odds formats.

Decimal Odds: Multiply your stake by the odds. They are mostly preferred in Asia. For this format, you can see the odds as (ex - 0.5,1.5, 2.13 or 5.7).

Fractional Odds: Divide your bet amount by the denominator and multiply it with the numerator. You can see these odds being represented as (4/5), (3/2) etc.

American Odds: The positive odds refer to the profit on each ₹100 bet. The negative odds represent the amount you must bet to win ₹100.

For positive odds, multiply your stake by the odds and divide it by 100. For negative odds, divide 100 by the odds and then multiply by your bet amount.

How do Betting Odds Work in Football

Betting Odds in football are the numerical indication of the outcome of an event in a match occurring. These betting odds are set by the bookmakers to determine how much of a chance you stand to win or lose based on the odds given and the amount you wager on a particular event. There are two major football odds types which are used to determine which team is the favourite to win the game and the opposite.

Betting sites include a margin which is also called as vig so that they end up on the profitable side. The odds offered by football betting sites are always not accurate.

Higher odds

When a bookmaker considers that the event has a lower probability of winning, it offers higher odds as well as higher payouts.

Lower odds

If an event has a higher probability of winning, the betting site will provide lower odds resulting in lower payouts.

What does 3 to 1 odds mean?

3 to 1 odds are highly popular in football betting. In this section we will explain how 3 to 1 odds work. These betting odds represent the chance or probability of a result.

For these odds, you can expect 3 out of every 4 possible outcomes to be of the same kind and the remaining 1 to be different. This would mean that within 4 betting events, your selection may win once and lose three times. Which has a win probability of 25% and 75% loss.

For example, if you bet ₹700 on an event with 3 to 1 odds and it wins, you would receive ₹2100 in profit, making your total return ₹2800 (₹2100 profit + ₹700 initial bet).

For instance: