Sporting Charleroi vs Dender Predictions

This ain’t no quiet night—it’s a high-stakes clash in matchweek 4 of the Conference League playoffs, with Charleroi, sitting 1st in the playoff group with 27 points from 33 games as of today (April 26, 2025, 3:29 AM IST), coming off a projected 3-0 win over Mechelen on April 19. Dender, dead last in the playoff group with 21 points, limp in after a projected 4-4 draw with OH Leuven on April 19, winless in their last three. I’ve lived these nights—cursing a fluffed shot, tea sloshing as the Stade roars. Here’s the lowdown—form, players, head-to-head scars, and betting scraps to chew on, with web buzz hyping Charleroi’s dominance but noting Dender’s scoring spark.

Team Form & Recent Performances

Sporting Charleroi

• 2024/25 Record: 13W, 6D, 14L in Pro League (27 points, 1st in Conference League playoffs); 2023/24 Pro League 13th with 12W, 9D, 13L

• Latest Result: Won 3-0 vs. Mechelen (April 19), drew 1-1 at Cercle Brugge (April 12).

• Home Form: Secured 7 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses in 16 Pro League home games this season—24 goals scored, 19 conceded.

Charleroi are prowling Stade du Pays like a Zebra on a rampage—unbeaten in four, their Mechelen rout a showcase of attacking flair that had me grinning, fist pumping as Nikola Štulić’s brace sealed it. They’re projected at three wins in six (3W, 2D, 1L), averaging 1.7 goals scored, 1.1 conceded. Their home form is solid (1.5 goals scored, 1.19 conceded per game), with a 60% BTTS rate in their last 10 games. Rik De Mil’s side, led by Štulić’s 9 goals, tops the playoff group with a three-point lead, but injuries to Aiham Ousou (ankle) and Théo Defourny (knee) could test their depth. Web reports praise their 52% possession and 7 shots on target vs. Mechelen, but a 4-2 loss to Club Brugge in March exposed defensive gaps.

Dender

• 2024/25 Record: 6W, 6D, 21L in Pro League (21 points, 6th in Conference League playoffs); 2023/24 Challenger Pro League 3rd with 15W, 9D, 6L

• Latest Result: Drew 4-4 vs. OH Leuven (April 19), lost 5-2 at Mechelen (April 12).

• Away Form: Secured 2 wins, 3 draws, 11 losses in 16 Pro League away games this season—16 goals scored, 35 conceded.

Dender are scrapping like a Kadaver fighting for survival—winless in three, their 4-4 Leuven thriller a wild ride that had me shaking my head as Aurélien Scheidler’s brace couldn’t secure the win. They’re projected at one win in six (1W, 2D, 3L), averaging 1.4 goals scored, 2.2 conceded. Their away form is grim (1 goal scored, 2.19 conceded per game), with 8/10 games seeing both teams score (BTTS). Vincent Euvrard’s side, sparked by Mohamed Berte’s 5 goals, is bottom of the playoff group, but their 5/5 games scoring shows bite. Web buzz flags injuries to Ragnar Oratmangoen (infection), Karol Fila (knee), Tom Holmes (knock), Michael Lallemand (ankle), and Noah Mbamba (unspecified), thinning their squad.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

• Overall Record: Charleroi lead with 6 wins to Dender’s 1, 1 draw—8 clashes since 2007.

• Recent Meeting: February 1, 2025—Charleroi won 5-0 at home (Pro League).

• Key Trend: Charleroi won 6/8 H2Hs; 4/5 saw one team fail to score, averaging 2.5 goals per game; Dender’s sole win was 1-0 at home in October 2024.

   

This ain’t a friendly Belgian chat—it’s a one-sided feud with Charleroi’s boot on Dender’s neck. The 5-0 thrashing in February, with Štulić and Daan Heymans running riot, was a massacre that had me grimacing as Dender played with nine men after early red cards. Dender’s 1-0 upset in October 2024 was their only bright spot, but Charleroi’s 6/7 wins prior show dominance. Four of five recent H2Hs had one team blanked, with Charleroi’s 2.2 xG per H2H dwarfing Dender’s 0.8. Charleroi’s home H2Hs average 3 goals, while Dender’s away struggles (1/8 scoring vs. Charleroi) spell trouble, per web stats.

Key Players to Watch

Sporting Charleroi

• Nikola Štulić (FWD): 9 goals, 2 assists in 2024/25. A Croatian sniper—bagged two vs. Mechelen, scored in February’s 5-0. I’d be roaring if he nets again.

• Daan Heymans (MID): 11 goals, 2 assists in 2024/25. A Belgian maestro—scored vs. Mechelen, key in big games.

• Martin Delavallée (GK): 5 clean sheets in 2024/25. A French shield—68% save rate, vital with Defourny out.

Dender

• Mohamed Berte (FWD): 5 goals in 2024/25. A Belgian spark—netted vs. Leuven, scored in October’s 1-0.

• Aurélien Scheidler (FWD): 2 goals in 2025. A French scrapper—bagged two vs. Leuven, could nick one if Lyon sleep.

• Michael Verrips (GK): 3 clean sheets in 2024/25. A Dutch wall—65% save rate, must be colossal vs. Charleroi’s attack.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Charleroi’s 4-2-3-1 is a high-octane beast—Štulić leads, Heymans and Parfait Guiagon (4 assists) create, averaging 52% possession and 10.5 shots per game. Ousou and Defourny are out, with Massamba Sow and Delavallée filling in, per web reports. They’ll press hard, exploiting Dender’s 2.19 goals conceded away, with a 57% win probability at home, per sportsgambler.com. Their 3/4 games scoring and 52% possession vs. Mechelen scream control, but a 4-2 loss to Brugge hints at counterattacking risks. Dender’s 4-2-3-1 is a desperate counter—Berte and Scheidler attack, Roman Kvet (1 assist) grafts, with 48% possession and 9.5 shots per game. Oratmangoen, Fila, Holmes, Lallemand, and Mbamba are out, with Dávid Hrnčár stepping up, per web reports. They’ll sit deep, targeting Charleroi’s 1.1 goals conceded, with 8/10 BTTS games, but their 11/16 away losses and depleted squad are brutal. Stade du Pays’ 15,000 fans will be a black-and-white storm—I can smell the Charleroi heat already. Charleroi’s 7/16 home wins and Dender’s 1/8 H2H wins tilt heavily toward the hosts, but Dender’s 5/5 scoring streak adds a flicker of hope. Web buzz favors Charleroi at -135 odds, with BTTS at 1.61, per telecomasia.net.

Prediction: Sporting Charleroi vs Dender