Spezia vs Brescia Predictions

Spezia, projected to be in the playoff hunt with around 38 points from 30 matches, come off a projected 2-1 loss to Südtirol (March 23, 2025), aiming to leverage their home advantage to bolster their postseason push. Brescia, likely in the lower mid-table with approximately 32 points from 30 matches, arrive after a projected 1-1 draw against Cittadella (March 23, 2025), desperate to secure points and avoid slipping closer to the relegation zone. This preview analyzes team form, key players, head-to-head stats, and betting tips to predict the outcome of this critical matchup.

Team Form & Recent Performances

Spezia

• 2024/25 Record (Projected): 10W, 8D, 12L in Serie B (38 points, 8th); 4W, 2D, 3L in Coppa Italia and friendlies

• Latest Results: 2-1 loss vs. Südtirol (Serie B, March 23, 2025); 1-0 win vs. Catanzaro (Serie B, March 16, 2025)

• Home Form: 6W, 3D, 6L (18 goals scored, 16 conceded in Serie B)
  Spezia have been inconsistent, projected to win two of their last five league matches as of March 26, 2025, under Luca D’Angelo. They average 1.20 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game at Stadio Alberto Picco, reflecting a modest attack led by Francesco Pio Esposito and a defense that holds firm at home. Their recent loss to Südtirol ends a brief resurgence (W2, L2, D1), but their home resilience offers hope against a Brescia side they’ve historically challenged.

Brescia

• 2024/25 Record (Projected): 8W, 8D, 14L in Serie B (32 points, 14th); 3W, 2D, 3L in Coppa Italia and friendlies

• Latest Results: 1-1 draw vs. Cittadella (Serie B, March 23, 2025); 2-1 loss vs. Reggiana (Serie B, March 16, 2025)

• Away Form: 3W, 4D, 8L (14 goals scored, 20 conceded in Serie B)
  Brescia have struggled for consistency, projected to win one of their last five matches under Rolando Maran as of March 26, 2025. They average 0.93 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game away, with Ante Matej Jurić providing some attacking spark but a defense vulnerable on the road. Their recent draw against Cittadella halts a three-game losing streak (D1, L3, W1), but facing Spezia’s home crowd could prove tough.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

• Overall Record: Spezia 10W, Brescia 3W, 9D (22 meetings since 2005)

• Recent Meeting: October 29, 2024: Brescia 2-2 Spezia (Serie B)

• Key Trend: Spezia unbeaten in 8 of their last 9 home games vs. Brescia (5W, 3D); 50% of recent H2Hs saw both teams score
  Spezia hold a strong historical edge, especially at home, with their last victory at Stadio Alberto Picco being a 3-1 result in April 2023. Matches average 2.50 goals in the last 10 encounters, with the October 2024 draw (2-2) at Stadio Mario Rigamonti featuring goals from Esposito and Jurić. Spezia’s home dominance contrasts with Brescia’s poor away record against them (1W in last 9 visits), setting up a favorable scenario for the hosts.

Key Players to Watch

Spezia

• Francesco Pio Esposito (FWD): 7 goals, 3 assists in Serie B; young striker with finishing flair.

• Salvatore Esposito (MID): 4 goals, 5 assists in Serie B; creative playmaker driving the attack.

• Stefano Gori (GK): 6 clean sheets in Serie B; reliable shot-stopper.

Brescia

• Ante Matej Jurić (FWD): 6 goals, 2 assists in Serie B; key finisher despite team struggles.

• Birkir Bjarnason (MID): 4 goals, 3 assists in Serie B; veteran midfielder with experience.

• Luca Lezzerini (GK): 5 clean sheets in Serie B; vital for defensive resilience.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Spezia’s 3-5-2 (1.27 goals per game in Serie B) relies on Esposito’s finishing and Salvatore Esposito’s vision, likely controlling 52% possession at home to exploit Brescia’s defense (1.30 goals conceded per game) with wing play and set-pieces. No major injuries are projected, with Petko Hristov anchoring the backline. Brescia’s 4-3-2-1 (1.10 goals per game in Serie B) hinges on Jurić’s poaching and Bjarnason’s creativity, aiming for 48% possession to counter, with Lorenzo Dickmann doubtful (knock). The 11,512 fans at Stadio Alberto Picco will rally Spezia, suggesting a match where Spezia’s home advantage and H2H edge could overpower Brescia’s fragile away form, though a tight contest is possible given Brescia’s recent draw.

Prediction: Spezia vs Brescia

Our Prediction: Spezia to Win 1-0