Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro Predictions

This ain’t no small-town samba—it’s a gritty clash in matchweek 6, with Mirassol, sitting 11th with 5 points from 5 games as of today (April 26, 2025, 3:13 AM IST), coming off a projected 1-1 draw with Grêmio on April 17. Atlético Mineiro, languishing near 17th with 4 points, limp in after a projected 2-1 win over Botafogo on April 20, their first victory of the season. I’ve lived these nights—half-shouting at a scrappy goal, half-cursing as the ball sails wide. Here’s the lowdown—form, players, head-to-head scars, and betting scraps to chew on, with web buzz noting Mirassol’s home grit but favoring Atlético’s potential resurgence.

Team Form & Recent Performances

Mirassol

• 2025 Record (Projected): 1W, 2D, 2L in Serie A (5 points, 11th); 2024 Serie B 2nd with 19W, 10D, 9L

• Latest Result: Drew 1-1 vs. Grêmio (April 17), lost 2-1 at Bahia (April 14).

• Home Form: Secured 10 wins, 6 draws, 3 losses in 19 Serie B home games in 2024—36 goals scored, 16 conceded.

Mirassol are scrapping at Campos Maia like a small-town crew punching above their weight—unbeaten in their last two, that Grêmio draw a hard-fought point that had me muttering “gutsy” as Dellatorre’s strike held up. They’re projected at one win in five (1W, 2D, 2L), averaging 0.8 goals scored, 1.2 conceded. Their 2024 Serie B home form was a fortress (1.89 goals scored, 0.84 conceded), but the Serie A step-up’s been rough—new faces like Dellatorre and Iury Castilho (1 goal) are still gelling. Rafael Guanes’ side is organized but leaky, with 5/6 games conceding this season. Web reports highlight their 10-match home unbeaten streak in 2024, but survival’s a slog.

Atlético Mineiro

• 2025 Record (Projected): 1W, 1D, 3L in Serie A (4 points, 17th); 2024 Serie A 9th with 14W, 12D, 12L

• Latest Result: Won 2-1 vs. Botafogo (April 20), lost 2-0 at Vitória (April 14).

• Away Form: Secured 6 wins, 5 draws, 8 losses in 19 Serie A away games in 2024—26 goals scored, 28 conceded.

Atlético Mineiro are clawing back like a Galo finding its spurs—that Botafogo win, with Hulk’s late goal, was a lifeline that had me nodding, fist pumping as they broke their slump. They’re projected at one win in five (1W, 1D, 3L), averaging 1 goal scored, 1.6 conceded. Their 2024 away form was patchy (1.37 goals scored, 1.47 conceded), with 48 goals scored, 49 conceded overall. Gabriel Milito’s side, led by Hulk’s 7 goals from 2024, is under pressure after a poor start, but Fausto Vera’s midfield grit offers hope. Web buzz notes their 1.4 goals per game average, but injuries to Paulinho and doubts over Bernard could hurt.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

• Overall Record: Mirassol lead with 1 win to Atlético Mineiro’s 0, 0 draws—1 clash in 2022.

• Recent Meeting: March 2, 2022—Mirassol won 3-2 at home (Copa do Brasil).

• Key Trend: The 2022 cup tie saw over 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring; no Serie A history, but Mirassol’s home upset sets a feisty tone.

This ain’t a storied rivalry—it’s a rare scrap with one fiery precedent. That 3-2 Mirassol win in 2022, with Zé Roberto’s brace, was a Copa do Brasil shocker that had me spilling tea, cursing as Atlético’s fightback fell short. No Serie A history exists due to Mirassol’s recent promotion, but that cup clash showed their home bite (3 goals) against Atlético’s pedigree (2 goals). Mirassol’s 1.89 home goals per game in 2024 Serie B clash with Atlético’s 1.37 away goals, setting up a potential goal fest. Web reports note the 2022 tie’s 5 goals, suggesting both sides can find the net.

Key Players to Watch

Mirassol

• Dellatorre (FWD): 7 goals, 2 assists in 2024 Serie B; 1 in 2025 Serie A. A Brazilian scrapper—fights like a cornered beast, scored vs. Grêmio. I’d lose my rag if he bags one.

• Iury Castilho (FWD): 1 goal in 2025. A quick spark—netted vs. Juventude, could stretch Atlético’s backline.

• Zé Marcos (GK): 9 clean sheets in 2024. A steady wall—68% save rate, key to thwarting Hulk’s shots.

Atlético Mineiro

• Hulk (FWD): 7 goals, 3 assists in 2024; 1 in 2025. A Brazilian bulldozer—powers through, scored vs. Botafogo.

• Fausto Vera (MID): 1 goal, 1 assist in 2025 (projected). An Argentine anchor—gritty, scored vs. Vitória.

• Everson (GK): 8 clean sheets in 2024. A Brazilian shield—70% save rate, must be colossal vs. Mirassol’s attack.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Mirassol’s 4-3-3 is a scrappy lunge—Dellatorre’s the spear, Chico Kim (1 assist) and Castilho create, averaging 48% possession and 9.8 shots per home game. Negueba’s doubtful (knock), but Gabriel’s pace stretches wings, per web reports. They’ll press high, exploiting Atlético’s 1.6 goals conceded per game, with a 10-match home unbeaten streak in 2024. Their 5/6 games conceding and 4/5 BTTS games hint at leaks. Atlético’s 4-2-3-1 is a counter-punching beast—Hulk leads, Vera and Gustavo Scarpa (2 assists) graft, with 52% possession and 11.5 shots per game. Paulinho’s out, Bernard’s doubtful, with Eduardo Vargas filling in, per web reports. They’ll lean on Hulk’s power, targeting Mirassol’s 1.2 goals conceded, but their 3/5 games conceding scream fragility. Campos Maia’s 15,000 fans will be a yellow-and-blue storm—I can smell the São Paulo heat already. Mirassol’s home grit (10/19 wins in 2024) clashes with Atlético’s 6/19 away wins, but Atlético’s experience (1.26 xG per away game) edges Mirassol’s enthusiasm (0.9 xG). Web buzz favors Atlético at 2.4 odds, but Mirassol’s 2.8 odds and 2022 upset keep it tight.

Prediction: Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro