FC Barcelona vs Atlético Madrid Predictions

FC Barcelona will host Atlético Madrid at Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys on February 26, 2025, in a high-stakes Copa del Rey semi-final first leg as two of Spain’s top teams vie for supremacy. Barcelona, under Hansi Flick, finished the 2024 La Liga season with 85 points, securing third place, and as of February 25, 2025, are projected to lead the 2024/25 La Liga standings with around 57 points from 26 matches, following a 2-1 win over UD Las Palmas (Feb 23, 2025). Atlético Madrid, led by Diego Simeone, ended 2024 fourth with 76 points and are projected to sit second with approximately 56 points from 25 matches, buoyed by a 3-0 victory against Valencia (Feb 23, 2025). Our expert prediction explores team form, key players, head-to-head stats, and betting tips to answer: Who will win FC Barcelona vs Atlético Madrid in this Copa del Rey clash?

Team Form & Recent Performances

FC Barcelona

• 2024 Record: 26W, 7D, 5L (85 points, 3rd in La Liga)

• Postseason: Lost to Real Madrid 2-1 (Supercopa de España Final)

• Latest Result (Projected as of Feb 25, 2025): 2-1 win vs. UD Las Palmas (Feb 23, 2025); 18W, 3D, 5L (57 points projected entering Feb 25)

• Home Form (2024): 15W, 2D, 2L (averaging 2.63 goals scored, 1.05 conceded)
  Barcelona have been in scintillating form in the 2024/25 season, with their recent 2-1 victory over UD Las Palmas, driven by goals from Dani Olmo and Ferran Torres, marking their sixth consecutive win across all competitions (including a 5-0 Copa del Rey thrashing of Valencia on Feb 19, 2025). As of February 25, 2025, they’re projected to lead La Liga with 57 points from 26 matches, showcasing their attacking prowess (2.54 goals per game) and defensive solidity (0.96 goals conceded per game). At home in 2024, they averaged 2.63 goals per game, with Robert Lewandowski leading the charge (19 goals entering 2025).

Atlético Madrid

• 2024 Record: 23W, 7D, 8L (76 points, 4th in La Liga)

• Postseason: Lost to Athletic Bilbao 4-0 agg (Copa del Rey Semi-finals)

• Latest Result (Projected as of Feb 25, 2025): 3-0 win vs. Valencia (Feb 23, 2025); 18W, 2D, 5L (56 points projected entering Feb 25)

• Away Form (2024): 10W, 4D, 5L (averaging 1.68 goals scored, 0.84 conceded)
  Atlético Madrid have been relentless, projected at 56 points from 25 matches as of February 25, 2025 (with a game in hand), following a 3-0 thrashing of Valencia, where Julián Álvarez scored twice and Ángel Correa added one. Their 12-game winning streak across all competitions ended with a 2-1 league loss to Barcelona on December 21, 2024, but they’ve since won eight straight, including a 5-0 Copa del Rey rout of Getafe (Feb 18, 2025). On the road in 2024, they averaged 1.68 goals per game, with Antoine Griezmann (10 goals, 7 assists entering 2025) and a stingy defense (0.84 goals conceded) leading the way.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

• Overall Record: Barcelona 114W, Atlético Madrid 77W, 53D (244 meetings since 1929)

• Recent Meetings:

  • Dec 21, 2024: Barcelona 1-2 Atlético Madrid (La Liga)

  • Mar 17, 2024: Atlético Madrid 0-3 Barcelona (La Liga)

  • Dec 3, 2023: Barcelona 1-0 Atlético Madrid (La Liga)

• Key Trend: Barcelona have won 7 of the last 10 meetings; 3 of their last 5 H2Hs stayed under 2.5 goals.
  Barcelona held a strong edge until Atlético’s 2-1 upset on December 21, 2024, at Montjuïc, ending a five-game losing streak against the Catalans with Alexander Sørloth’s late winner. Matches have averaged 2.2 goals per game in their last five encounters, with Barcelona unbeaten in their last 18 home league games against Atlético (15W, 3D) prior to that loss. In cup competitions, Barcelona’s last Copa del Rey win over Atlético was a 3-2 thriller in 2017, suggesting tight, competitive battles.

Key Players to Watch

FC Barcelona

• Robert Lewandowski (FWD): 19 goals in 2024/25; Barcelona’s top scorer and veteran leader.

• Dani Olmo (MID): 8 goals, 5 assists; creative force in midfield.

• Wojciech Szczęsny (GK): 9 clean sheets; steady replacement for injured Marc-André ter Stegen.

Atlético Madrid

• Antoine Griezmann (FWD): 10 goals, 7 assists in 2024/25; Atlético’s talisman and playmaker.

• Julián Álvarez (FWD): 9 goals; emerging star adding firepower.

• Jan Oblak (GK): 10 clean sheets; one of the world’s best shot-stoppers.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Barcelona’s possession-based 4-3-3 (2.54 goals per game) will clash with Atlético’s disciplined 4-4-2 (1.76 goals per game). Lewandowski’s finishing and Olmo’s flair could exploit Atlético’s defense (0.88 goals conceded per game), which has been breached in recent high-stakes games. Atlético’s counterattacking style, led by Griezmann and Álvarez, will test Barcelona’s backline (0.96 goals conceded per game), with Oblak’s heroics key to keeping it tight. Barcelona’s Lamine Yamal (out, ankle) and Atlético’s Robin Le Normand (doubtful, knock) may affect lineups, with Barcelona’s 55,000-strong Montjuïc crowd amplifying the stakes.

Prediction: FC Barcelona vs Atlético Madrid

Our Prediction: Asian handicap - FC Barcelona to Win +0

TIP 2: Goalscorers - Robert Lewandowski

TIP 3: Correct Score - 1-2