Auxerre vs Olympique Marseille Predictions

Auxerre will host Olympique Marseille in a compelling Ligue 1 showdown at the Stade de l’Abbé Deschamps on February 23, 2025, as Round 23 brings together two teams with contrasting ambitions. Auxerre, under Christophe Pélissier, have defied expectations since their 2024 promotion, fighting to secure their top-flight status. Olympique Marseille, led by Roberto De Zerbi, aim to maintain their push for a top-three finish after a strong 2024/25 campaign so far. Our expert prediction explores team form, key players, head-to-head stats, and betting tips to answer: Who will win Auxerre vs Olympique Marseille in this Ligue 1 clash?

Team Form & Recent Performances

Auxerre

• 2024/25 Record (as of Feb 22): 7W, 5D, 10L (26 points, 12th in Ligue 1)

• Latest Result: 2-1 loss vs. Lens (Feb 15, 2025)

• Home Form: 5W, 2D, 4L (17 goals scored, 14 conceded)
  Auxerre have shown resilience in their Ligue 1 return, sitting mid-table with 26 points from 22 matches as of February 22, 2025. Their recent 2-1 defeat to Lens, despite Theo Bair’s goal, ended a two-game unbeaten run (1W, 1D). At home, they’ve been competitive, averaging 1.55 goals per game, with a gritty style that’s kept them above the relegation zone.

Olympique Marseille

• 2024/25 Record (as of Feb 22): 13W, 6D, 3L (45 points, 3rd in Ligue 1)

• Latest Result: 2-2 draw vs. PSG (Feb 16, 2025)

• Away Form: 6W, 3D, 2L (21 goals scored, 13 conceded)
  Marseille are in fine form, holding third place with 45 points from 22 matches. Their recent 2-2 draw against PSG, with goals from Pierre-Emile Højbjerg and Mason Greenwood, showcased their attacking prowess despite dropping points. On the road, they’ve scored 1.91 goals per game, bolstered by a Europa League run that saw a 3-1 win over Ajax on February 13.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

• Overall Record: Marseille 15W, Auxerre 8W, 6D (29 meetings since 1990)

• Recent Meetings:

  • Aug 31, 2024: Marseille 2-0 Auxerre (Ligue 1)

  • Apr 20, 2012: Auxerre 2-0 Marseille (Ligue 1)

  • Dec 3, 2011: Marseille 3-0 Auxerre (Ligue 1)

• Key Trend: Marseille have won 4 of the last 5 Ligue 1 meetings; 60% of their H2Hs since 2000 stayed under 2.5 goals.
  Marseille hold a historical edge, particularly in recent decades, with their 2-0 win in the reverse fixture this season underlining their dominance. Auxerre’s last home win over Marseille came in 2012, suggesting a tough challenge ahead.

Key Players to Watch

Auxerre

• Theo Bair (FWD): 7 goals in 2024/25; a physical presence leading the line.

• Gideon Mensah (DEF): 3 assists; key in defensive transitions.

• Donovan Léon (GK): 8 clean sheets; critical in goal.

Olympique Marseille

• Pierre-Emile Højbjerg (MID): 5 goals, 6 assists in 2024/25; a midfield dynamo.

• Mason Greenwood (FWD): 10 goals in 2024/25; thriving under De Zerbi.

• Jonathan Rowe (FWD): 6 goals; a rising star adding pace.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Auxerre’s compact, counterattacking approach (1.23 goals per game) will face Marseille’s possession-based, high-pressing style (2.05 goals per game). Marseille’s attacking trio could exploit Auxerre’s defense (1.55 goals conceded per game), which has faltered against top sides. Auxerre’s home crowd may lift them, but Marseille’s away form and depth (56% possession avg.) suggest dominance. Injuries to Auxerre’s Sinaly Diomandé (knee) and Marseille’s Wesley Teixeira (ankle doubt) could influence the balance.

Prediction: Auxerre vs Olympique Marseille

Our Prediction: Match Winner - Olympique Marseille to Win

TIP 2: Goalscorer - Mason Greenwood