Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid Predictions

Atlético Madrid will face Real Madrid at the Cívitas Metropolitano on March 13, 2025, in a Champions League Round of 16 second-leg matchup, trailing 2-1 on aggregate from the first leg (March 4, 2025). Atlético Madrid, likely 2nd in La Liga with around 56 points from 27 matches, come off a projected 1-0 league win over Getafe (March 9, 2025), needing to overturn a one-goal deficit. Real Madrid, expected 3rd in La Liga with about 54 points from 27 matches, arrive after a projected 2-1 league win over Rayo Vallecano (March 9, 2025), aiming to secure their quarter-final spot. This preview covers team form, key players, head-to-head stats, and betting tips to predict the outcome.

Team Form & Recent Performances

Atlético Madrid

• 2024/25 Record (Projected): 17W, 5D, 5L in La Liga (56 points, 2nd); 6W, 1D, 1L in UCL League Phase

• Latest Result: 1-0 win vs. Getafe (La Liga, March 9, 2025); 2-1 loss vs. Real Madrid (UCL, March 4, 2025)

• Home Form: 10W, 2D, 1L (28 goals scored, 10 conceded in La Liga); 4W in UCL home games Atlético Madrid have been in excellent form, winning four of their last five games, including a 1-0 victory over Getafe. They average 2.15 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game at home in La Liga, needing at least a 1-0 win to force extra time against a Real Madrid side they’ve struggled to beat in knockout ties.

Real Madrid

• 2024/25 Record (Projected): 16W, 6D, 5L in La Liga (54 points, 3rd); 6W, 1D, 2L in UCL League Phase

• Latest Result: 2-1 win vs. Rayo Vallecano (La Liga, March 9, 2025); 2-1 win vs. Atlético Madrid (UCL, March 4, 2025)

• Away Form: 7W, 3D, 3L (25 goals scored, 16 conceded in La Liga); 2W in UCL away games Real Madrid have won three of their last five games, including a 2-1 first-leg victory over Atlético (goals from Kylian Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior). They average 1.92 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game away in La Liga, aiming to hold their lead despite injury concerns.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

• Overall Record: Real Madrid 5W, Atlético Madrid 0W, 2D (7 UCL meetings since 2014)

• Recent Meeting:
  March 4, 2025: Real Madrid 2-1 Atlético Madrid (Champions League, Round of 16, First Leg)

• Key Trend: Real Madrid have won all 5 UCL knockout ties vs. Atlético; 71% of recent H2Hs saw both teams score. Real Madrid’s 2-1 first-leg win continued their knockout dominance, though Atlético’s 1-1 draw in La Liga (February 8, 2025) shows competitiveness. Matches average 2.4 goals, with Real unbeaten in UCL knockout legs against Atlético (5W), suggesting a tough challenge for the hosts.

Key Players to Watch

Atlético Madrid

• Julián Álvarez (FWD): 8 goals, 5 assists in La Liga; key scorer.

• Antoine Griezmann (FWD): 6 goals, 7 assists in La Liga; veteran leader.

• Jan Oblak (GK): 9 clean sheets in La Liga; vital in goal.

Real Madrid

• Kylian Mbappé (FWD): 15 goals in La Liga; first-leg scorer.

• Vinícius Júnior (FWD): 10 goals, 6 assists in La Liga; first-leg hero.

• Thibaut Courtois (GK): 7 clean sheets in La Liga; under pressure.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Atlético’s 4-4-2 (1.88 goals per game in UCL) relies on Álvarez’s finishing and Griezmann’s creativity, likely pushing with 52% possession at home to chase the tie. Real Madrid’s 4-3-3 (2.25 goals per game in UCL) leans on Mbappé’s speed and Vinícius’s flair, aiming to counter with 48% possession away despite injuries (e.g., Bellingham doubtful). The Cívitas Metropolitano’s 70,460 fans will rally Atlético, suggesting a tight, goal-filled game where Atlético’s attack tests Real’s depleted defense.

Prediction: Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid

Our Prediction: Atletico Madrid or Draw

TIP 2: Total Home - Over 1

TIP 3: Total Goal - Over 2.5