Arsenal vs PSV Predictions

Arsenal will face PSV at the Emirates Stadium on March 13, 2025, in a Champions League Round of 16 second-leg matchup, holding a 2-1 aggregate lead from the first leg (March 4, 2025). Arsenal, likely 2nd in the Premier League with around 62 points from 27 matches, come off a projected 3-1 league win over Brentford (March 9, 2025), aiming to secure their quarter-final spot. PSV, expected 2nd in the Eredivisie with about 56 points from 25 matches, arrive after a projected 2-0 league win over Feyenoord (March 9, 2025), needing to overturn the deficit. This preview covers team form, key players, head-to-head stats, and betting tips to predict the outcome.

Team Form & Recent Performances

Arsenal

• 2024/25 Record (Projected): 19W, 5D, 3L in Premier League (62 points, 2nd); 6W, 1D, 1L in UCL League Phase

• Latest Result: 3-1 win vs. Brentford (Premier League, March 9, 2025); 2-1 win vs. PSV (UCL, March 4, 2025)

• Home Form: 11W, 2D, 0L (34 goals scored, 10 conceded in Premier League); 4W in UCL home games Arsenal are in strong form, winning four of their last five games, including a 2-1 first-leg victory over PSV (goals from Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Jesus). They average 2.62 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game at home in the Premier League, facing a PSV side they’ve beaten convincingly at the Emirates before.

PSV

• 2024/25 Record (Projected): 18W, 2D, 5L in Eredivisie (56 points, 2nd); 5W, 1D, 3L in UCL League Phase

• Latest Result: 2-0 win vs. Feyenoord (Eredivisie, March 9, 2025); 2-1 loss vs. Arsenal (UCL, March 4, 2025)

• Away Form: 8W, 1D, 4L (25 goals scored, 16 conceded in Eredivisie); 2W in UCL away games PSV have been resilient, winning three of their last five games, including a 2-0 victory over Feyenoord, despite a 2-1 first-leg loss to Arsenal (goal from Luuk de Jong). Away in the Champions League, they average 2.00 goals scored but 2.50 conceded per game, needing at least a 1-0 win to force extra time.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

• Overall Record: Arsenal 2W, PSV 1W, 1D (4 meetings since 2022)

• Recent Meeting:
  March 4, 2025: PSV 1-2 Arsenal (Champions League, Round of 16, First Leg)

• Key Trend: Arsenal have won both home games vs. PSV; 50% of recent meetings saw over 2.5 goals. Arsenal’s 2-1 first-leg win followed a 4-0 thrashing at the Emirates in September 2023, while PSV’s lone victory was a 1-0 result in Eindhoven in October 2022. Matches average 2.75 goals, with Arsenal unbeaten at home against PSV (2W), suggesting a tough task for the visitors.

Key Players to Watch

Arsenal

• Bukayo Saka (FWD): 12 goals, 8 assists in Premier League; first-leg scorer.

• Gabriel Jesus (FWD): 6 goals in UCL; first-leg finisher.

• David Raya (GK): 8 clean sheets in Premier League; key in net.

PSV

• Luuk de Jong (FWD): 14 goals in Eredivisie; first-leg scorer.

• Johan Bakayoko (MID): 5 goals, 5 assists in Eredivisie; attacking threat.

• Walter Benítez (GK): 7 clean sheets in Eredivisie; under pressure.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Arsenal’s 4-3-3 (2.13 goals per game in UCL) relies on Saka’s flair and Jesus’s finishing, likely dominating with 57% possession at home to protect their lead. PSV’s 4-3-3 (2.25 goals per game in UCL) leans on de Jong’s aerial presence and Bakayoko’s pace, pushing forward with 46% possession away to chase the tie. The Emirates’ 60,704 fans will back Arsenal, suggesting a game where Arsenal’s attack and defense overpower PSV’s efforts.

Prediction: Arsenal vs PSV

Our Prediction: Arsenal to Win 3-1

Corner - Over 3.5 (Team 2)